Prediksi Emisi Karbon pada Kawasan Strategis Nasional di Kabupaten Gresik berdasarkan Pemodelan Penggunaan Lahan

Mahmudi, Muhammad Rois (2023) Prediksi Emisi Karbon pada Kawasan Strategis Nasional di Kabupaten Gresik berdasarkan Pemodelan Penggunaan Lahan. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Kabupaten Gresik mengalami pertumbuhan sangat pesat dari segi pembangunan dan ekonomi. Penetapan Kawasan Strategis Nasional dan Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus berdampak sangat positif bagi perekonomian di Kabupaten Gresik. Namun, efek samping dari dinamika pertumbuhan tersebut yakni meningkatnya alih fungsi lahan dan emisi karbon pada wilayah perkotaan di Kabupaten Gresik. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui prediksi emisi karbon pada Kawasan Strategis Nasional di Kabupaten Gresik berdasarkan pemodelan penggunaan lahan agar dapat digunakan sebagai bahan evaluasi dan pertimbangan dalam upaya mengurangi resiko peningkatan emisi karbon dan efek turunannya. Metode pengambilan data penelitian meliputi studi literatur, survei institusional, observasi, serta wawancara dan kuesioner kepada pemangku kepentingan dari berbagai unsur. Data dianalisis menggunakan teknik analisis spasial, analisis delphi, analytical hierarchy process (AHP), analisis deskriptif kualitatif, cellular automata, dan estimasi emisi (REDD Abacus SP.). Hasil penelitian ini menemukan kecenderungan historis bahwa penggunaan lahan industri dan permukiman aktif mengkonversi jenis lahan lainnya. Terdapat masing-masing 18 dan 19 faktor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan industri dan permukiman. Pola ruang, jaringan air bersih, dan rawan bencana merupakan faktor prioritas dari industri. Sedangkan jaringan air bersih, pola ruang, dan jaringan listrik merupakan faktor prioritas dari permukiman. Pemodelan dilakukan dengan tingkat validitas mencapai 92,24% yang memprediksi penggunaan lahan permukiman, tambak, dan industri akan mendominasi wilayah penelitian pada tahun 2041. Estimasi emisi karbon dilakukan dengan pendekatan historical (linear forecast) dan forward-looking (hasil pemodelan) yang menghasilkan nilai emisi kumulatif dari perubahan lahan selama kurun waktu tahun 2023 hingga 2041 yakni sebesar 158.516 ton CO2-eq untuk pendekatan forward-looking dan 68.970 ton CO2-eq untuk pendekatan historical. Hasil tersebut mengindikasikan peran signifikan dari agenda atau rencana pembangunan pada Kawasan Strategis Nasional di Kabupaten Gresik yang telah diakomodasi dalam pemodelan penggunaan lahan terhadap peningkatan emisi karbon di masa depan.
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Gresik Regency is experiencing rapid growth in terms of development and economy. The designation of National Strategic Areas and Special Economic Zones has a very positive impact on the economy in Gresik Regency. However, the side effect of this growth dynamic is the increase in land conversion and carbon emissions in the urban areas of Gresik Regency. This research aims to predict carbon emissions in the National Strategic Area in Gresik Regency based on land-use modeling so that it can be used as a basis for evaluation and consideration in efforts to reduce the risks of increased carbon emissions and their derivative effects. The data collection method for this research includes literature studies, institutional surveys, observations, as well as interviews and questionnaires involving stakeholders from various elements. The data was analyzed using spatial analysis, delphi analysis, analytical hierarchy process (AHP), qualitative descriptive analysis, cellular automata, and emission estimation (REDD Abacus SP.). The findings of this research reveal a historical trend that industrial and residential land use actively convert other land types. There are 18 and 19 factors, respectively, that influence the growth of industry and residential areas. Spatial patterns, clean water networks, and disaster-prone areas are priority factors for industrial development, while clean water networks, spatial patterns, and electricity networks are priority factors for residential development. The modeling was carried out with a validity rate of 92.24%, predicting that residential, aquaculture, and industrial land use will dominate the research area in 2041. Carbon emission estimation was conducted using historical (linear forecast) and forward-looking (modeling-based) approaches, resulting in cumulative emission values from land-use changes during the period from 2023 to 2041, which are 158,516 tons CO2-eq for the forward-looking approach and 68,970 tons CO2-eq for the historical approach. The results indicate a significant impact of development agendas or plans in the National Strategic Areas in Gresik Regency, which have been accommodated in land-use modeling, on future carbon emissions.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Carbon Emission, Driving Factor, Gresik, Land Use Change, Land Use Modeling, Emisi Karbon, Faktor Pendorong, Gresik, Pemodelan Lahan, Perubahan Lahan.
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.212 ArcGIS. Geographic information systems. G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G70.217 Geospatial data G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering > TD171.75 Climate change mitigation
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Regional & Urban Planning > 35201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Muhammad Rois Mahmudi
Date Deposited:	30 Jul 2023 14:31
Last Modified:	30 Jul 2023 14:31
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/100095

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