Peramalan Jumlah Penerimaan Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor Di UPT PPD Surabaya Timur Menggunakan Model Fungsi Transfer

Octavia, Yurike Nur Alfi (2023) Peramalan Jumlah Penerimaan Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor Di UPT PPD Surabaya Timur Menggunakan Model Fungsi Transfer. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Salah satu sumber penerimaan yang besar dan potensial bagi pemerintah Indonesia yaitu bersumber dari sektor perpajakan. Di Provinsi Jawa Timur, Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor (PKB) memiliki peranan penting bagi Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) karena menyumbang dana yang cukup besar. Kelalaian wajib pajak dalam membayar pajak mengakibatkan banyaknya objek tunggakan pajak kendaraan bermotor sehingga dapat berdampak ke jumlah penerimaan pajak kendaraan bermotor. Melihat besarnya kontribusi penerimaan pajak kendaraan bermotor sebagai salah satu sumber pendapatan asli daerah sehingga dibutuhkan upaya pemerintah untuk terus meningkatkannya. Salah satu upaya yang dapat dilakukan yaitu dengan meramalkan jumlah penerimaan pajak kendaraan bermotor untuk periode tahun 2023 di UPT PPD Surabaya Timur. Sehingga dilakukan penelitian dengan model fungsi transfer untuk meramalkan jumlah penerimaan pajak kendaraan bermotor (y_t) dengan variabel input yaitu jumlah kendaraan yang menunggak membayar pajak (x_t ). Data yang digunakan yaitu data bulanan dari bulan Januari 2018 sampai Desember 2022. Penelitian ini menghasilkan model fungsi transfer yaitu y_t=-99,08526x_(t-12)-0,57792a_(t-1)+a_t. Hasil akurasi peramalan dengan model fungsi transfer didapatkan nilai MAPE sebesar 14,76% yang artinya model fungsi transfer memiliki kemampuan yang baik untuk peramalan. Berdasarkan model fungsi transfer yang diperoleh, hasil peramalan jumlah penerimaan pajak kendaraan bermotor dari bulan Januari 2023 sampai dengan Desember 2023 cenderung mengalami kenaikan. Jumlah penerimaan pajak kendaraan bermotor terbesar terjadi pada bulan bulan Desember 2023 yaitu sebesar Rp 20.709.339.775 dan jumlah penerimaan pajak kendaraan bermotor terendah terjadi pada bulan Januari 2023 yaitu sebesar Rp 20.345.912.849. Hasil penelitian diharapkan dapat memberikan informasi kepada instansi terkait sebagai bahan pertimbangan dalam penentuan target penerimaan PKB pada periode yang akan datang.
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One of the large and potential sources of revenue for the Indonesian government is sourced from the tax sector. In East Java Province, Motor Vehicle Tax (PKB) has an important role for Local Own-Source Revenue (PAD) because it contributes considerable funds. Taxpayer negligence in paying taxes results in many objects of motor vehicle tax arrears so that it can have an impact on the amount of motor vehicle tax revenue. Seeing the large contribution of motor vehicle tax revenue as one of the local own-source revenue, so it takes the government’s efforts to continue to increase it. One of the efforts that can be made are by forecasting the amount of motor vehicle tax revenue in UPT PPD East Surabaya for the 2023 period. So that research was carried out with transfer function model to forecast the amount of motor vehicle tax revenue (y_t) with input variable that is the number of vehicles that are delinquent in paying taxes (x_t). The data used are monthly data from January 2018 to December 2022. This research resulted the transfer function model that is y_t=-99,08526x_(t-12)-0,57792a_(t-1)+a_t. The results of forecasting accuracy with the transfer function model obtained MAPE value of 14,76%, which means that the transfer function model has good capabilities for forecasting. Based on the transfer function model obtained, the forecasting results of the amount of motor vehicle tax revenue from January 2023 to December 2023 tend to increase. The largest amount of motor vehicle tax revenue occurred in December amounting to Rp 20.709.339.775 and the lowest amount of motor vehicle tax revenue occurred in January amounting to Rp 20.345.912.849. The results of the reseacrh are expected to provide information to relevant agencies as consideration in determining PKB revenue targets in the coming period.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Transfer Function, Forecasting, Motor Vehicle Tax, Fungsi Transfer, Peramalan, Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor.
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Yurike Nur Alfi Octavia
Date Deposited:	28 Aug 2023 04:12
Last Modified:	28 Aug 2023 04:12
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/101623

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