Pemodelan Perbandingan Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Kendaraan Roda Dua Listrik vs Konvensional di Indonesia dengan Pendekatan Probabilistik

Alsada, Sulaiman Virdico (2023) Pemodelan Perbandingan Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Kendaraan Roda Dua Listrik vs Konvensional di Indonesia dengan Pendekatan Probabilistik. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penurunan emisi di Indonesia dapat ditunjang dari sektor energi konsumsi bahan bakar mesin, utamanya berasal dari transportasi roda dua yang mendominasi 82% kendaraan pribadi di Indonesia. Diperlukan beberapa pendekatan hingga kebijakan agar adopsi kendaraan listrik berjalan optimal. Pendekatan TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) yang terbagi menjadi tiga segmentasi dipilih untuk memberikan informasi komparatif biaya siklus produk secara utuh pada masyarakat guna meningkatkan daya tarik adopsi E2W (Electric 2-Wheeler) dan memberikan informasi hasil komparasi antar keduanya secara probabilistik berupa NPV (Net Present Value) dan EUAC (Equivalent Uniform Annual Cost), meliputi harga beli, skenario jarak tempuh harian, biaya operasional, serta regulasi insentif yang berjalan. Pemodelan resale value dan pengujian lapangan tingkat konsumsi setiap kendaraan dilakukan berdasarkan SNI yang berlaku untuk mendapatkan nilai prediktif yang akurat baik ICE dan E2W. Hasilnya, persentase komposisi biaya terbesar ICE dan E2W terletak pada fuel cost (52%) dan major replacement cost (54%) secara berturut-turut. Kemudian, pengaruh terbesar dalam komparasi TCO antara ICE dan E2W terletak pada nilai resale value, maintenance cost, dan skema penggantian baterai E2W. Secara garis besar, E2W memiliki keunggulan hingga 97% dari seluruh skenario jarak tempuh harian dan tahun kepemilikan. Hasil ini juga diikuti dengan informasi mengenai umur ekonomis produk yang dipengaruhi oleh harga jual, skema penggantian baterai, dan variabel lainnya. Selanjutnya, adanya kebijakan insentif pembelian E2W meningkatkan keunggulan E2W hingga Rp191.78 dalam satuan EUAC per km. Kebijakan insentif dapat meningkatkan keunggulan E2W pada setiap segmentasi hingga 100%, baik secara deterministik maupun probabilistik. Rekomendasi kebijakan lain yang juga dinilai efektif, mencakup subsidi harga listrik pada charging facility dan mengganti konsumsi BBM pertalite menjadi pertamax
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The emissions reduction in Indonesia can be supported by the energy sector, especially in fuel consumption for engines, mainly from two-wheeled transportation which dominates 82% of private vehicles in Indonesia. Several approaches and policies are needed for optimizing the adoption of electric vehicles. The TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) approach, which is divided into three segments, was chosen to provide comparative information on the cost of the complete product cycle to the public in order to increase the attractiveness of E2W and provide comparative information probabilistically in the form of NPV (Net Present Value) and EUAC ( Equivalent Uniform Annual Cost), including purchase price, daily mileage scenario, operational costs, as well as current incentive regulations. Resale value modeling and field testing of consumption levels for each vehicle are carried out based on the current SNI to obtain accurate predictive values for both ICE and E2W. As a result, the largest percentage of the cost composition of ICE and E2W lies in fuel costs (52%) and major replacement costs (54%) respectively. Then, the biggest influence on the TCO comparison between ICE and E2W lies in the resale value, maintenance costs, and the E2W battery replacement scheme. Overall, the E2W has an advantage of up to 97% over all daily mileage scenarios and years of ownership. These results are also followed by information about the product’s economic life which is affected by the selling price, battery replacement scheme, and other variables. Furthermore, the existence of an incentive policy to purchase E2W increases the advantages of E2W up to IDR 191.78 in EUAC units per km. Incentive policies can increase E2W's advantage in each segment up to 100%, both deterministically and probabilistically. Other policy recommendations that were also considered effective include subsidizing electricity prices at charging facilities and shifting Pertalite fuel consumption to Pertamax

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	EUAC, Harga Jual, Kendaraan Listrik, Pemodelan Probabilistik, Simulasi Monte Carlo, Total Biaya Kepemilikan, Electric vehicles; EUAC, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probabilistic Modeling, Resale Value, Total Cost of Ownership
Subjects:	T Technology > TL Motor vehicles. Aeronautics. Astronautics > TL220 Electric vehicles and their batteries, etc.
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Sulaiman Virdico Alsada
Date Deposited:	11 Sep 2023 03:49
Last Modified:	11 Sep 2023 03:49
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/101927

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