Peramalan Harga Bahan Pangan di Pasar Tradisional Indonesia Menggunakan Metode ARIMAX Berdasarkan Variasi Kalender

Hasanah, Rahmi (2023) Peramalan Harga Bahan Pangan di Pasar Tradisional Indonesia Menggunakan Metode ARIMAX Berdasarkan Variasi Kalender. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pangan merupakan salah satu prioritas utama dalam memenuhi kebutuhan dasar setiap manusia dan berkontribusi tinggi terhadap perkembangan ekonomi. Harga bahan pangan biasanya mengalami perubahan tergantung faktor-faktor yang memengaruhinya, seperti cuaca, musim, dan ketersediaan dari bahan pangan itu sendiri. Pada saat tertentu harga bahan pangan melonjak tinggi disebabkan meningkatnya permintaan pangan sedangkan persediaan tidak mencukupi. Indonesia merupakan negara yang memiliki keberagaman agama dan budaya serta masyarakatnya yang sangat konsumtif. Peringatan Hari Raya di Indonesia dapat meningkatkan kebutuhan bahan pangan sehingga harga pangan cenderung naik, seperti harga bawang merah, telur ayam ras dan cabai merah besar. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan peramalan harga bawang merah, telur ayam ras, dan cabai merah besar menggunakan metode ARIMAX berdasarkan variasi kalender untuk melihat fenomena apa yang mempengaruhi kenaikan harga. Metode ARIMAX merupakan metode ARIMA dengan menambahkan variabel eksogen yaitu variabel dummy. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa harga bawang merah dipengaruhi oleh Idul Fitri . Sedangkan harga telur ayam ras tidak dipengaruhi oleh idul fitri maupun idul adha, namun di pengaruhi oleh tren. Model terbaik ARIMAX variasi kalender memiliki nilai MAPE 18% pada harga bawang merah, nilai MAPE 9% pada harga telur ayam ras, dan nilai MAPE 20% pada harga cabai merah besar.
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Food is one of the top priorities in fulfilling the basic needs of every human being and contributes highly to economic development. The price of food usually changes depending on the factors that influence it, such as weather, season, and the availability of the food itself. At certain times, food prices soar due to increased demand for food while supplies are insufficient. Indonesia is a country with religious and cultural diversity and a highly consumptive society. The celebration of Hari Raya in Indonesia can increase the need for food so that food prices tend to rise, such as the price of shallots, eggs and large red chili
peppers. In this study, price forecasting of shallots, eggs, and large red chilies was carried out using the ARIMAX method based on calendar variations to see what phenomena affect the price increase. The ARIMAX method is an updated ARIMA method by adding exogenous variables, namely dummy variables. The results of the analysis show that the price of shallots is influenced by Idul Fitri. While the price of broiler eggs is not influenced by Eid al-Fitr or Eid al-Adha, but is influenced by trends. The best ARIMAX model of calendar variation has a MAPE value of 18% on shallot prices, a MAPE value of 9% on eggs prices, and a MAPE value of 20% on large red chili peppers prices

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMA, ARIMAX, Harga Bahan Pangan, ARIMA, ARIMAX, Food Prices
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Rahmi Hasanah
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2023 23:10
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2023 23:10
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/101942

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