Analisis Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression pada Kasus Data Imbalanced Rumah Tangga Miskin di Provinsi Jawa Timur

Naba, Marchelia (2023) Analisis Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression pada Kasus Data Imbalanced Rumah Tangga Miskin di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Kemiskinan merupakan permasalahan serius yang dihadapi hampir semua negara, termasuk di Indonesia. Menurut Badan Pusat Statistik tahun 2021, diantara provinsi di Pulau Jawa, Jawa Timur menempati peringkat terakhir kepadatan penduduk tetapi peringkat ke-3 tertinggi dalam persentase penduduk miskin. Saat mengatasi kemiskinan, faktor dan klasifikasi yang tepat sangat dibutuhkan untuk menyusun program penanggulangan kemiskinan kepada sasaran yang tepat pula, sehingga akan dilakukan pemodelan dan identifikasi faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh pada status kemiskinan rumah tangga di Jawa Timur. Pada negara-negara berkembang, rumah tangga merupakan pilihan yang relevan sebagai unit analisis kemiskinan sehingga penelitian ini menggunakan unit penelitian rumah tangga Jawa Timur. Status kemiskinan rumah tangga memiliki 2 kategori yaitu miskin dan tidak miskin. Pada tahun 2022, dari jumlah sampel sebanyak 32.454 rumah tangga, perbandingan rumah tangga miskin dan tidak miskin di Jawa Timur adalah sekitar 1:20. Terlihat bahwa ada ketidakseimbangan data atau biasa disebut dengan data imbalanced. Berdasarkan karakteristik data yang telah disebutkan, metode Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression (RE-WLR) adalah metode yang tepat untuk penelitian ini. Data yang digunakan merupakan data SUSENAS Jawa Timur dengan 1 variabel respon dan 12 variabel prediktor. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik RE-WLR telah sesuai dalam memodelkan status kemiskinan rumah tangga di Jawa Timur dengan nilai AUC dan sensitivitas masing-masing 52,17% dan 4,7%. Variabel yang signifikan mempengaruhi status kemiskinan rumah tangga di Jawa Timur adalah jumlah ART, status literasi KRT, kedudukan utama KRT dalam pekerjaan, status kepemilikan sepeda motor, status kepemilikan laptop/komputer/tablet, luas lantai, dan bahan bangunan utama dinding rumah.
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Poverty is a serious problem that faced by almost all countries, including in Indonesia. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics in 2021, among the provinces in Java Island, East Java is in the last rank for population density but ranks 3rd highest in terms of the percentage of poor people. When addressing poverty, appropriate factors and classifications are urgently needed to develop poverty alleviation programs for the right targets, so that modeling and identification of factors that influence the poverty status of households in East Java will be carried out. In developing countries, the household is the most reasonable choice as a poverty analysis unit, so this study uses the East Java household research unit. Household poverty status has 2 categories, namely poor and not poor. In 2022, from a total of 32,454 households of sample, the ratio of the status of poor and non-poor households in East Java is around 1:20. It can be seen that there is an imbalance data. Based on the characteristics of the data that have been mentioned, the Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression (RE-WLR) method is the right method for this study. The data used is East Java SUSENAS data with 1 response variable and 12 predictor variables. The results of this study indicate that the best RE-WLR model is appropriate in modeling the poverty status of households in East Java with AUC values and sensitivity of 52.17% and 4.7%, respectively. Variables that significantly affect the poverty status of households in East Java are the number of household members, the literacy status of the head of household, the main position of the head of household at work, the status of motorbike ownership, the status of laptop/computer/tablet ownership, floor area, and the main building material for the walls of the house.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Household Poverty Status, Imbalanced Data, Rare Event Weighted Logistic Regression, Data Tidak Seimbang, Status Kemiskinan Rumah Tangga.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	MARCHELIA NABA
Date Deposited:	05 Oct 2023 05:17
Last Modified:	05 Oct 2023 05:17
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/104415

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