Pemodelan Ekonometrika Spasial Kerugian Makroekonomi Akibat Bencana Alam

Kusumaningrum, Henny (2014) Pemodelan Ekonometrika Spasial Kerugian Makroekonomi Akibat Bencana Alam. Other thesis, Insititut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 1311106003_Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf Download (868kB)

Abstract

Asia-Pasifik termasuk di dalamnya Indonesia merupakan daerah penghasil seperempat dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) dunia, namun dalam 30 tahun terakhir ini 85% dari kematian dan 38% kerugian ekonomi global yang diakibatkan oleh bencana alam juga terjadi di kawasan ini. Bagi Indonesia dampak bencana sangat terasa. Besarnya kerusakan dan kerugian akibat dampak bencana sangat besar. Pada penelitian ini menganalisis mengenai kerugian makroekonomi akibat bencana alam di Pulau Jawa. Diduga terdapat efek dependensi spasial, sehingga penyelesaian dalam kasus ini menggunakan regresi dengan pendekatan area, yaitu Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Hasil statistika deskriptif, diketahui Rata-rata nilai PDRB atas dasar harga berlaku di Pulau Jawa sebesar 31738 (Juta Rupiah). Rata-rata populasi penduduk di Pulau Jawa sebesar 1183,6 ribu jiwa. Rata-rata jumlah kejadian bencana sebesar 8,583 kejadian. Rata-rata jumlah korban jiwa akibat bencana sebesar 89,3. Rata-rata jumlah kerusakan rumah akibat bencana sebesar 410. Rata-rata jumlah kerusakan fasilitas umum akibat bencana sebesar 9,73. Berdasarkan Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) didapatkan variabel prediktor yang signifikan pada tingkat signifikansi 5% yaitu populasi penduduk. Sedangkan untuk variabel dengan pembobot yang signifikan yaitu jumlah kejadian bencana artinya kejadian bencana di suatu wilayah berdampak pada wilayah lain yang berdekatan. Nilai Rsq=61,63% berarti model tersebut mampu menjelaskan variasi dari PDRB atas dasar harga berlaku sebesar 61,63 %.
==============================================================================================================================
Asia-Pacific region including Indonesia is producing a quarter of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the world, but in the last 30 years this 85% of deaths and 38% of global economic losses caused by natural disasters also occurred in the region. For Indonesia disaster impact is felt. The magnitude of the damage and loss due to the impact of the disaster is enormous. The magnitude of the damage and loss due to the impact of the disaster is enormous. This research analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of the loss of natural disasters on the island of Java. Allegedly there is spatial dependencies, so that the effect of the settlement in this case using regression approach area, i.e. the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Results of descriptive statistics, the average value of GDP on the basis of the prices prevailing on the island of Java 31738 (million Rupiah). The average population in Java amounted to 1183,6 thousand. The average number of occurrences of disaster is 8,583 disaster. The average number of victims as a result of the disaster 89,3. The average amount of damage to the home caused by the disaster amounted to 410. The average amount of damage to public facilities due to the disaster of 9,73. Based on the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) obtained a significant predictor variables on the level of significance 5% is population. As for the weight variable with the number of significant instances of catastrophic disaster events mean in a region have an impact on other areas. Rsq value =61,63% means the model was able to describe the variation of the GDP on the basis of prevailing prices of 61,63%.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Additional Information:	RSSt 339.072 4 Kus p-1, 2014
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Regresi Spasial, Bencana Alam, Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), Spatial Regression, Natural Disaster
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory > Economic forecasting--Mathematical models.
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mr. Marsudiyana -
Date Deposited:	05 Jan 2024 07:45
Last Modified:	05 Jan 2024 07:45
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/105383

Actions (login required)

View Item