Assessing Supply Chain Risk and Mitigation Strategies: the Case of LNG Supply Shortage at a Power Company

Wirayuda, Muhammad Rakha (2024) Assessing Supply Chain Risk and Mitigation Strategies: the Case of LNG Supply Shortage at a Power Company. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Sesuai dengan Keputusan Presiden Republik Indonesia No. 112 tahun 2022 dan target Net Zero Emission pada tahun 2060, pembangunan pembangkit listrik tenaga batubara baru dilarang pada tahun 2030. Penetapan kebijakan pelarangan pembangkit listrik tenaga batubara dan target Net Zero Emission memaksa perusahaan jaringan listrik milik pemerintah Indonesia untuk melakukan transisi energi. LNG sebagai pasokan energi primer untuk pembangkit listrik merupakan salah satu bauran energi primer yang penting dalam transisi NZE. Namun pasokan LNG diperkirakan akan mengalami kekurangan pada sekitar tahun 2024-2025. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menilai dan memitigasi risiko yang disebabkan oleh kekurangan pasokan. Tinjauan literatur sistematis digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk mengidentifikasi potensi risiko yang disebabkan oleh gangguan kekurangan pasokan. House of Risk digunakan setelah identifikasi risiko untuk menilai tingkat keparahan dan merumuskan mitigasi serta perhitungan efektivitasnya. Telah teridentifikasi 55 agen risiko dan 26 kejadian risiko dimana agen risiko yang paling disruptif adalah ketidaksinkronan pembangunan infrastruktur LNG dengan rencana pengembangan sistem ketenagalistrikan jangka panjang. 62 mitigasi proaktif telah diidentifikasi dimana model pembangunan bertahap harus menjadi prioritas utama. Namun ada satu agen risiko yang tidak bisa dimitigasi, yaitu tertundanya pembangunan pembangkit listrik terbarukan, karena perusahaan tidak mempunyai wewenang dan kemampuan untuk mempercepat pembangunan tersebut
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In accordance with Indonesian Presidential Decree No. 112 year 2022 and Net Zero Emission target by 2060, development of new coal power plant is prohibited by 2030. Established policy on coal power plant prohibition and Net Zero Emission target force Indonesian government-owned electricity grid company to conduct energy transition. LNG as primary energy supply for power plants is one of the crucial primary energy mixes for NZE transition. However, LNG supply is projected to experience shortage by approximately 2024-2025. Objectives of this research are to assess and mitigate risks caused by supply shortage. Systematic literature review was utilised in this research to identify potential risks caused by supply shortage disruption. House of Risk was utilised subsequent to risk identification to assess severity degree and formulate mitigation with its effectiveness calculation. 55 risk agents and 26 risk events have been identified where the most disruptive risk agent is unsynchronised LNG infrastructure development with long-term electricity system development plan. 62 proactive mitigations have been identified where incremental development model must be top-prioritised. However, there is one risk agent cannot be mitigated, renewable power plants development delay, due to the company is not authorised and capable to accelerate the development.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	LNG, Rumah Risiko, Rantai Pasokan, Gangguan Rantai Pasokan, Penilaian Risiko Rantai Pasokan, Tinjauan Literatur Sistematis; LNG, House of Risk, Supply Chain, Supply Chain Disruption, Supply Chain Risk Assessment, Systematic Literature Review
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174.5 Technology--Risk assessment.
Divisions:	Faculty of Creative Design and Digital Business (CREABIZ) > Business Management > 61205-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Muhammad Rakha Wirayuda
Date Deposited:	23 Jan 2024 01:31
Last Modified:	23 Jan 2024 01:31
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/105527

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