Pemodelan Status Terminasi Polis Pada Asuransi di PT X Menggunakan Pendekatan Model Bayesian Survival Analysis Piecewise Constant Hazard

Aditya, Krishna (2023) Pemodelan Status Terminasi Polis Pada Asuransi di PT X Menggunakan Pendekatan Model Bayesian Survival Analysis Piecewise Constant Hazard. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Tingkat terminasi polis asuransi adalah salah satu masalah penting yang diperhatikan semua perusahaan asuransi. Terminasi polis asuransi adalah keadaan di mana seseorang membatalkan(surrender), berhenti membayar uang pertanggungan/nilai uang tunai tidak cukup (lapse), dan klaim. Banyak pemegang polis yang membeli polis asuransi jiwa, namun tidak terus membayar sampai masa akhir pembayaran polis. Penelitian ini akan melakukan analisis survival mengenai Terminasi Polis Asuransi Jiwa PT X dengan model Cox Proportional Hazard. Analisis dilakukan dengan dua metode: Piecewise Constant Hazard dengan pendekatan Bayesian dan Cox Proportional Hazard. Selain didapatkan faktor yang berpengaruh pada terminasi polis dan koefisien regresi, Metode Piecewise Constant Hazard dengan pendekatan Bayesian juga akan menghasilkan nilai baseline hazard. Dengan menggunakan data status terminasi polis asuransi jiwa PT X Juni 2020 – Juni 2023 didapatkan hasil model Cox Proportional Hazard dengan kedua metode. Model Cox Proportional Hazard tidak memenuhi asumsi Proportional Hazard sehingga dilakukan pemodelan dengan stratified Cox dan didapatkan variabel usia signifikan. Sementara dengan mengabaikan uji asumsi Proportional Hazard, model Cox Proportional Hazard dan Piecewise Constant Hazard dengan pendekatan Bayesian variabel usia, metode pembayaran, dan uang pertanggungan adalah faktor yang berpengaruh signifikan. Didapatkan juga AIC metode Cox Proportional Hazard 243691, metode stratified Cox 230446,6 dan model Cox Proportional Hazard dan DIC dengan Piecewise Constant Hazard dengan pendekatan Bayesian 194826,8, dengan baseline hazard tertinggi pada interval 6 kemudian interval 7, dengan interval yang didapatkan adalah [0;932,5); [932,5;1072,5); [1072,5;1129,5); [1129,5;1166,5); [1166,5;1284);[1284;1322,5);[1322,5;1395,5); dan [1395,5;∞).
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Policy termination rate is one of the main problem that is concerning for insurance company. Insurance policy termination is a condition where a policy holder cancel (surrender) the policy, stop paying premium (lapse), and also claim for benefit. There are many cases where policy holder bought life insurance policy, but unable to complete their premium payment. In this research, survival analysis will be conducted to analyze PT X life insurance policy termination with two method: Piecewise Constant Hazard using Bayesian approach and Cox Proportional Hazard. In addition to obtaining factors that affect policy termination and regression coefficients, the Piecewise Constant Hazard Method with a Bayesian approach will also produce a baseline hazard value. Using data on the termination status of PT X life insurance policy June 2020 - June 2023, the results of the Cox Proportional Hazard model with both methods were obtained. The Cox Proportional Hazard model does not meet the Proportional Hazard assumption so that modeling is carried out with stratified Cox and a significant age variable is obtained. While ignoring the Proportional Hazard assumption test, the Cox Proportional Hazard and Piecewise Constant Hazard models with the Bayesian approach, the variables of age, payment method, and sum insured are significant factors. Also obtained AIC Cox Proportional Hazard method 243.691, stratified Cox method 230.446,6 and Cox Proportional Hazard model and DIC for Piecewise Constant Hazard with Bayesian approach 194.826,8, with the highest baseline hazard in interval 6 then interval 7, with the intervals obtained are [0;932,5); [932,5;1072,5); [1072,5;1129,5); [1129,5;1166,5); [1166,5;1284); [1284;1322,5);[1322,5;1395,5); dan [1395,5;∞).

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Cox Proportional Hazard, Life Insurance, Piecewise Constant Hazard Model, Analisis Survival, Asuransi Juwa, Cox Proportional Hazard, Model Piecewise Constant Hazard, Terminasi Polis. Policy Termination, Survival Analysis
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA274.7 Markov processes--Mathematical models. Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Actuaria > 94203-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Krishna Aditya
Date Deposited:	17 Jan 2024 06:57
Last Modified:	17 Jan 2024 06:58
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/105529

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