Pemodelan Harga Cabai Rawit Berdasarkan Produksi Cabai Rawit di Provinsi Jawa Timur

Alfaqih, Hafidz Dinillah (2024) Pemodelan Harga Cabai Rawit Berdasarkan Produksi Cabai Rawit di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Cabai rawit merupakan salah satu komoditi yang memiliki peran penting bagi perekonomian di Indonesia. Cabai rawit termasuk dalam 5 komoditas utama yang memberikan andil terbesar inflasi sebesar 17,85%. Harga cabai rawit di Indonesia khususnya Provinsi Jawa Timur selama tahun 2018-2022 cukup berfluktuasi. Hal ini disebabkan oleh produksi cabai rawit cenderung terus meningkat setiap saat dan pendistribusian tidak merata, sementara permintaan cabai rawit bersifat musiman. Akibat hasil panen yang melimpah, menyebabkan harga cabai rawit akan anjlok di setiap daerah. Fluktuasi harga seringkali lebih merugikan petani daripada pedagang, karena petani tidak dapat mengatur waktu penjualannya untuk mendapat harga yang lebih menguntungkan. Maka dari itu, dibutuhkan suatu penelitian untuk meramalkan harga cabai rawit di masa mendatang agar dapat meminimalisir risiko yang akan dihadapi oleh petani. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan peramalan harga cabai rawit di Provinsi Jawa Timur menggunakan data sekunder yang didapatkan melalui website PIHPS Nasional. Data yang digunakan berupa data bulanan harga cabai rawit dari bulan Januari 2018 hingga Desember 2022. Model yang digunakan adalah Fungsi Transfer dan Fungsi Transfer Intervensi. Hasil dari model terbaik untuk meramalkan harga cabai rawit berdasarkan nilai RMSE dan MAPE yaitu model Fungsi Transfer Intervensi. Pemodelan harga cabai rawit diperngaruhi oleh jumlah produksi 23 bulan sebelumnya dan musim 14 bulan sebelumnya dengan RMSE sebesar 33,85 dan MAPE sebesar 37,33% yang artinya model sudah cukup baik. Harga cabai rawit tertinggi di Provinsi Jawa Timur terjadi pada bulan Maret dan terendah pada bulan Desember. Pergerakan harga cabai rawit di Provinsi Jawa Timur selama 12 periode cenderung menunjukkan tren menurun. Hal tersebut disebabkan oleh beberapa daerah memasuki masa panen secara bersamaan, sehingga terjadi lonjakan hasil panen. Akibatnya hasil panen cabai rawit melimpah dan menyebabkan harga cabai rawit mengalami penurunan.
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Cayenne pepper is one of the commodities that has an important role for the economy in Indonesia. Cayenne pepper is included in the 5 main commodities that provide the largest share of inflation at 17.85%. The price of cayenne pepper in Indonesia, especially East Java Province during 2018-2022, fluctuated quite a lot. This is due to the fact that the production of cayenne pepper tends to increase every time and the distribution is uneven, while the demand for cayenne pepper is seasonal. Due to the abundant harvest, the price of cayenne pepper will drop in each region. Price fluctuations are often more detrimental to farmers than traders, because farmers cannot time their sales to get a more favourable price. Therefore, a study is needed to forecast the price of cayenne pepper in the future in order to minimise the risks faced by farmers. In this study, cayenne pepper price forecasting in East Java Province is carried out using secondary data obtained through the National PIHPS website. The data used is monthly data on the price of cayenne pepper from January 2018 to December 2022. The models used are Transfer Function and Intervention Transfer Function. The results of the best model for forecasting the price of cayenne pepper based on the RMSE and MAPE values are the Intervention Transfer Function model. Modeling the price of cayenne pepper is influenced by the amount of production 23 months earlier and the season 14 months earlier with an RMSE of 33.85 and MAPE of 37.33% which means the model is good enough. The highest cayenne pepper price in East Java Province occurred in March and the lowest in December. The movement of cayenne pepper prices in East Java Province over 12 periods tends to show a downward trend. This is due to several regions entering the harvest period simultaneously, resulting in a surge in crop yields. As a result, the cayenne pepper harvest is abundant and causes the price of cayenne pepper to decline.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMA, Forecasting, The Price of Cayenne Papper, Transfer Function, Fungsi Transfer, Harga Cabai Rawit, Peramalan
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Hafidz Dinillah Alfaqih
Date Deposited:	29 Jan 2024 01:15
Last Modified:	29 Jan 2024 01:15
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/105677

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