Peramalan Harga Ayam Ras Pedaging di Provinsi Jawa Barat Dengan Pendekatan Efek Variasi Kalender

Wulandari, Aprilia Dwi (2024) Peramalan Harga Ayam Ras Pedaging di Provinsi Jawa Barat Dengan Pendekatan Efek Variasi Kalender. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Ayam ras pedaging merupakan salah satu komoditi unggas yang berkontribusi besar dalam memenuhi kebutuhan sumber protein hewani masyarakat Indonesia. Seringnya terjadi kenaikan permintaan daging ayam selama hari besar keagamaan meyebabkan lonjakan harga ayam ras, sehingga menjadi kurang terjangkau bagi konsumen. Kondisi ini memerlukan prediksi harga ayam ras pada periode mendatang agar pemerintah dapat mengatasi anomali harga terutama pada hari besar keagamaan. Tindakan stabilisasi oleh pemerintah, akan berdampak pada daerah penghasil daging ayam terbesar di Indonesia yaitu Jawa Barat. Berdasarkan uraian diatas, pada penelitian ini menggunakan metode ARIMA dengan memasukkan pengaruh variasi kalender seperti hari raya Idul Fitri, Ramadhan dan hari raya Idul Adha serta perayaan Maulid Nabi Muhammad SAW. Hasil penelitian ini menujukkan bahwa karakteristik harga daging ayam ras provinsi Jawa Barat memiliki pola yang fluktuaktif dengan kenaikan yang signifikan menjelang hari raya Idul Fitri sehingga terbentuk ARIMA pendekatan efek variasi kalender yaitu ARIMAX (2,1,0). Hasil permodelan ini menunjukkan menunjukkan harga ayam ras per kilogram dipengaruhi sebesar 1,344 kali dari harga pada periode sebelumnya. selain itu, pengaruh harga dua periode sebelumnya sebesar -0,163 kali dan pengaruh harga tiga periode sebelumnya sebesar -0,181 kali. Selanjutnya, pada rentang 7 hari sebelum Ramadhan hingga 7 hari setelah Lebaran, terjadi peningkatan harga ayam ras sebesar Rp.210,715/kg Sebaliknya, saat hari raya Idul Adha, tercatat penurunan harga sebesar Rp.663,543/kg. Saat perayaan Maulid Nabi Muhammad SAW terjadi peningkatan harga sebesar Rp.171,274/kg dibandingkan dengan hari-hari biasa. Akurasi model ARIMAX (2,1,0) mempunyai MAPE sebesar 0,302% sehingga hasil ramalannya sudah mendekati nilai sebenarnya dan lebih baik jika dibandingkan akurasi model ARIMA (2,1,0).
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Broiler chicken is one of the major poultry commodities that significantly contributes to meeting the animal protein needs of the Indonesian population. The frequent increase in demand for chicken meat during religious holidays often leads to a surge in prices, making it less affordable for consumers. This situation necessitates the prediction of broiler chicken prices for upcoming periods so that the government can address price anomalies, especially during significant religious occasions. Government stabilization measures would particularly impact West Java, the largest producer of chicken meat in Indonesia.Based on the above description, this research employs the ARIMA method, incorporating the influence of calendar variations such as Eid al-Fitr, Ramadan, Eid al-Adha, and the celebration of the birth of Prophet Muhammad SAW. The research findings indicate that the price characteristics of broiler chicken in West Java exhibit a fluctuating pattern with a significant increase leading up to Eid al-Fitr, resulting in the formulation of an ARIMA approach with calendar variation effects, namely ARIMAX (2,1,0). The modeling results show that the price of broiler chicken per kilogram is influenced 1.344 times by the price in the previous period. Additionally, the influence of the prices from two and three periods before is -0.163 times and -0.181 times, respectively. Furthermore, within the 7-day range before Ramadan until 7 days after Eid, there is an increase in broiler chicken prices by Rp.210,715/kg. Conversely, during the celebration of Eid al-Adha, there is a recorded decrease in prices by Rp.663,543/kg. During the celebration of the birth of Prophet Muhammad SAW, there is an increase in prices by Rp.171,274/kg compared to regular days. The accuracy of the ARIMAX (2,1,0) model is reflected in a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.302%, indicating that the forecasting results are close to the actual values and outperform the accuracy of the ARIMA (2,1,0) model.

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMAX, Broiler Chicken, Calendar Variation, Ayam Ras Pedaging, Variasi Kalender
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Aprilia Dwi Wulandari
Date Deposited:	29 Jan 2024 16:38
Last Modified:	29 Jan 2024 16:38
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/105755

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