Aditya, Novaldy (2024) Sensitivity Analysis Of Economic Feasibility In The Mature Oil Field In The Waterflood Project Using Monte Carlo Simulation Of Rokan Working Area. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh November.
![[thumbnail of 6032202086-Master_Thesis.pdf]](http://repository.its.ac.id/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
6032202086-Master_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 July 2026. Download (4MB) | Request a copy |
Abstract
Kondisi sumber daya migas yang semakin menipis membuat para praktisi di bidangnya memikirkan strategi dalam pengembangan ladang migas. Parameter ekonomi merupakan parameter yang paling berpengaruh dalam pengembangan proyek lapangan migas. Fluktuasi harga minyak, ketidakpastian cadangan minyak, biaya proyek dan biaya operasional merupakan variabel yang paling mempengaruhi. Variabel-variabel tersebut perlu disensitisasi dalam kelayakan proyek agar layak dijalankan. Metode Monte Carlo digunakan dalam menentukan prakiraan harga minyak dan cadangan minyak bumi sehingga dapat diketahui sensitivitasnya untuk mengukur probabilitas keuntungan dan kerugian suatu proyek serta sensitivitas parameter keekonomian proyek tersebut. Monte Carlo dipilih karena dapat mengetahui ketidakpastian yang signifikan pada variabel data. Hasil perhitungan kelayakan proyek waterflood dari ketiga lapangan yang ada di wilayah kerja Rokan adalah layak. Peneliti merekomendasikan agar pengajuan Beta mempunyai nilai kelayakan ekonomi terbaik diantara ketiga lainnya. Hasil simulasi Monte Carlo untuk variabel harga minyak, cadangan, biaya investasi dan produksi pada lapangan Beta menghasilkan nilai NPV positif pada rentang nilai variabel antara 79%-123%
====================================================================================================================================
The condition of oil and gas resources is increasingly depleting make practitioners in their fields think about strategies in developing oil and gas fields. Economic parameters are the most influential in development oil and gas field projects. Fluctuation of oil prices, uncertainty of oil reserves, project costs and operating costs is the most influence variable. These variables need to be sensitized in the feasibility of the project so that it is feasible to run. The Monte Carlo method is used in determining forecasts for oil prices and oil and gas reserves so that its sensitivity can be seen to measure the probability of profits and losses of a project as well as the sensitivity of the project's economic parameters. Monte Carlo was chosen because it can determine significant uncertainty in the data variables. The results of the calculation of the feasibility of the waterflood project from the three existing fields in Rokan working area are feasible. Researchers recommend that the Beta filed has the best economic feasibility value of the three others. Monte Carlo simulation results for variable oil prices, reserves, investment costs and production in the Beta field resulted in positive NPV values in the range of variable values between 79%-123%
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Analisa Sensitivitas, Kelayakan Ekonomi, Sensitivitas, Simulasi Monte Carlo, Waterflood; Sensitivity Analysis, Economic Feasibility, Sensitivity, Monte Carlo Simulation, Waterflood |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management |
| Divisions: | Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT) |
| Depositing User: | Novaldy Aditya |
| Date Deposited: | 02 Feb 2024 03:21 |
| Last Modified: | 02 Feb 2024 03:21 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/105928 |
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |