Gurning, Goldian Roganda (2024) Studi Perencanaan Penambahan Kapasitas Pembangkit Di Pulau Sumbawa Menggunakan Metode Mixed Integer Linear Programming Tahun 2022-2030. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Pertambahan penduduk, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang positif, dan growth rate rasio elektrifikasi PLN merupakan penyebab utama meningkatnya kebutuhan listrik. Di Pulau Sumbawa, penduduk bertambah sebesar 1,596% di tahun 2022. Begitu pula tren pertumbuhan ekonomi yang relatif positif pasca pandemi serta target elektrifikasi 100% yang terus dikejar oleh PLN UIW NTB. Konsekuensinya, beban puncak di Sistem Sumbawa-Bima diproyeksi mengalami laju pertumbuhan sebesar 9,37% tiap tahunnya hingga akhir waktu studi menjadi 256 MW. Pada initial year penelitian, terkalkulasi total kapasitas terpasang dari pembangkit eksisting sebesar 167,36 MW dengan daya mampu netto hanya 148,11 MW. Adanya gap antara kenaikan beban puncak dan kapasitas pembangkit eksisting di tahun 2022 harus dipenuhi dengan studi Generation Expansion Planning (GEP). GEP digagas dengan objektif untuk memperoleh skenario integrasi unit pembangkit kandidat paling optimal ke dalam grid, ditinjau dari faktor ekonomi dan keandalan. Pemodelan matematika dari kondisi real Sistem Sumbawa-Bima berhasil dilakukan mengacu pada bentuk umum metode Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). Simulasi MATLAB menunjukkan bahwa hasil yang diperoleh feasible dan konvergen. Fungsi objektif skenario MILP-1 memberi nilai total fixed cost sebesar $107.140.986,48-, lebih murah sekitar $7.122.431,38-, dari skenario perencanaan milik PLN. Reserve Margin (RM)≥40% di tiap tahunnya juga berhasil diperoleh, dengan penambahan yang relatif lebih balanced dibandingkan skenario PLN. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa studi GEP di Sistem Sumbawa-Bima berhasil dimodelkan secara linear menggunakan metode MILP dengan pemodelan sistem telah memenuhi seluruh constraint linear yang ditetapkan.
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The increase in population, positive economic growth, and PLN's electrification growth rate ratio are the main causes of increasing electricity demand. On Sumbawa Island, the population will increase by 1,596% in 2022. Likewise, the relatively positive economic growth trend after the pandemic and the 100% electrification target that PLN UIW NTB continues to pursue. Consequently, the peak load in the Sumbawa-Bima System is projected to reach a growth rate of 9,37% each year until the end of the study horizon to be 256 MW. In the initial year of research, the total installed capacity of existing power plants was calculated at 167,36 MW with a net capacity of only 148,11 MW. The gap between the increase in peak load and existing generating capacity in 2022 must be filled with a Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) study. GEP was initiated with the objective of obtaining the most optimal integration scenario for candidate generating units into the grid, in terms of economic and reliability factors. Mathematical modeling of the real conditions of Sumbawa-Bima System was successfully carried out referring to the general form of Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) method. MATLAB simulation shows that the results obtained are feasible and convergent. The objective function of the MILP-1 scenario gives a total fixed cost value of $107.140.986,48-, around $7.122.431,38- cheaper than PLN’s planning scenario. Reserve Margin (RM) ≥40% each year was also successfully obtained, with additions that were relatively more balanced compared to PLN scenario. This shows that the GEP study in the Sumbawa-Bima System was successfully modeled linearly using the MILP method with the system modeling fulfilling all the linear constraints set.
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