Model Penilaian Risiko Ketersediaan Komponen pada Pembangunan Kapal Ferry di Indonesia

Ariany, Zulfaidah (2024) Model Penilaian Risiko Ketersediaan Komponen pada Pembangunan Kapal Ferry di Indonesia. Doctoral thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Probabilitas kelompok material/komponen mempunyai prosentasi yang tinggi penyebab keterlambatan pada pembangunan kapal ditinjau dari hasil beberapa penelitian sebelumnya. Pada industri galangan kapal pembahasan dan analisa manajemen risiko dalam proses pembangunan kapal masih perlu di kembangkan sehingga penulis mencoba mengembangkan model penilaian risiko yang mengkombinasi metode FMEA dan penilaian Value at Risk (VaR). Penilain risiko ketersediaan komponen pada pembangunan kapal ferry di galangan Indonesia, integrasi FMEA dan Value at Risk. Identifikasi potensial kegagalan dilakukan dengan cara pemberian nilai atau skor masing – masing moda kegagalan berdasarkan atas tingkat kejadian (occurrence), tingkat keparahan (severity), dan tingkat deteksi (detection). Skor RPN [perkalian dari nilai Severity, Occurrence dan Detection] dari FMEA, khususnya pada nilai Occurrence digunakan sebagai input untuk perhitungan Value at Risk. Skor ini digunakan sebagai probabilitas awal dalam VaR dan kemudian diperbarui berdasarkan data yang tersedia untuk menghasilkan penilaian risiko yang lebih akurat. Daftar kejadian dan sumber risiko di peroleh dengan kuisioner di beberapa galangan yang melakukan pembangunan tipe kapal yang sama yaitu kapal ferry. Nilai Occurance di konversikan menjadi pembobotan prosentase masing-masing penilaian utama dan sub penilaian yang telah di susun sebelumnya. Setiap model penilaian diselesaikan dengan menggunakan value at risk (VaR), dilanjutkan perhitungan probabilitas Bayesian hingga diperoleh peringkat probabilitas terjadinya kegagalan. Mitigasi risiko berdasarkan standar penilaian risiko pada pembangunan kapal ferry dan menentukan usulan standar penilaian risiko pembangunan kapal ferry.
Hasil akhir penelitian ini berupa perhitungan dan evaluasi level/tingkat risiko pada ketersediaan komponen pembangunan kapal ferry 600GT pada kelompok material lambung, permesinan, kelistrikan dan peralatan lainnya dengan menggunakan metode FMEA, risk matriks, dan Value at Risk. Aplikasi/kerja pengembangan (project) Model Ketersediaan Komponen dibuat untuk mempermudah pengawasan dan pemantauan proyek pembangunan kapal. Hasil penilaian diharapkan dapat membantu dalam memahami dan mengelola risiko proyek. Aplikasi ketersediaan komponen/material pada pembangunan kapal ferry yang akhirnya bertujuan sebagai alat bantu pada pengelolaan proyek yang lebih efektif. ============================================================
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The probability that the material or component group has a high percentage of causes of delays in ship construction is seen from the results of several previous studies. In the shipbuilding industry, discussion and analysis of risk management in the shipbuilding process still need to be developed, so the author tries to develop a risk assessment model that combines FMEA and assessment value-at-risk (VaR)
methods.
Risk assessment of component availability in ferry construction in Indonesian shipyards, integration of FMEA, and Value at Risk methods. Potential failures are identified by assigning a value or score to each mode based on the
occurrence rate, severity, and detection level. The RPN [multiplication of severity, occurrence, and detection] scores from FMEA, precisely the occurrence values, are used as inputs for value at risk calculations. This score is used as the initial probability in Bayesian analyses and is then updated based on available data to produce a more accurate risk assessment. A list of incidents and sources of risk was
obtained using questionnaires at several shipyards that build the same type of ship, ferries. The occurrence value is converted into a percentage weighting for each main network and sub-network compiled previously. The weighting percentage of each leading network and sub-network yields an occurrence value. Each network model is completed using value-at-risk (VaR) and Bayesian probability calculations
to obtain a probability rating for failure. Risk mitigation based on risk assessment standards for ferry construction and determining proposed risk assessment standards for ferry construction.
The final result of this research is a calculation and valuation of the level of risk in the availability of components in the construction of new ferries (hull
components, machinery components, electrical components, and other supporting components) in the construction of 600GT ferries using the FMEA method, risk matrix, and value at risk. The application/development work (project) component
availability model was created to facilitate the supervision and monitoring of shipbuilding projects. The results of this assessment can help understand and manage project risks by applying component and material availability in ferry
construction, which ultimately aims to be a tool for more effective project management.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Value at Risk, FMEA, Ketersediaan Komponen Kapal, Pembangunan Kapal Ferry, Penilaian Risiko ========================================== Value at Risk, FMEA, Ship Component Availability, Ferry Ship Construction, Risk Assessment
Subjects:	V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering > VM298.5 Shipbuilding industri. Shipyards
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36001-(S3) PhD Theses
Depositing User:	ZULFAIDAH ARIANY
Date Deposited:	11 Feb 2024 02:49
Last Modified:	11 Feb 2024 08:03
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/106762

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