Defi, Ivana Irma (2024) Peramalan Produksi Minyak Kelapa Sawit dengan Metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Perkembangan industri kelapa sawit di Indonesia mengalami kemajuan yang pesat, terutama peningkatan luas lahan dan produksi kelapa sawit. Minyak kelapa sawit merupakan salah satu komoditas ekspor di Indonesia yang diperkirakan masih akan naik terus karena persediaan terbatas. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan model peramalan dari produksi minyak kelapa sawit di Indonesia menggunakan metode ARIMA dan mengetahui nilai ramalan dari produksi minyak kelapa sawit di Indonesia menggunakan metode ARIMA.Model ARIMA yang terbentuk adalah ARIMA(0,1,[5,12]) dengan nilai MAPE dan RMSE sebesar 13,2% dan 646138,4879. Hasil peramalan dengan menggunakan model ARIMA pada data produksi minyak kelapa sawit di Indonesia menunjukkan bahwa bahwa nilai ramalan dari produksi minyak kelapa sawit tertinggi pada bulan Desember 2022 sekitar 4022564 ton. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan tambahan informasi kepada pemerintah sebagai pertimbangan dalam menentukan kebijakan dalam mengatasi tingginya permintaan produksi minyak kelapa sawit di Indonesia.
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The development of the palm oil industry in Indonesia has progressed rapidly, especially the increase in land area and palm oil production. Palm oil is one of the export commodities in Indonesia which is expected to continue to increase due to limited supplies. This research aims to obtain a forecasting model for palm oil production in Indonesia using the ARIMA method and to find out the forecast value of palm oil production in Indonesia using the ARIMA method. The ARIMA model formed is ARIMA(0,1,[5,12]) with MAPE and RMSE values of 13.2% and 646138.4879.Forecasting results using the ARIMA model on palm oil production data in Indonesia show that the predicted value of the highest palm oil production in December 2022 is around 4022564 tonnes. It is hoped that this research can provide additional information to the government for consideration in determining policies to address the high demand for palm oil production in Indonesia.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | ARIMA, Peramalan, Produksi Kelapa Sawit, Forecasting, Production of Palm Oil |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Ivana Irma Defi |
| Date Deposited: | 14 Mar 2024 05:51 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Mar 2024 05:51 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/107808 |
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