Analisis Flypaper Effect pada Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Timur Menggunakan Regresi Data Panel

Octaviani, Dewi (2024) Analisis Flypaper Effect pada Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Jawa Timur Menggunakan Regresi Data Panel. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pemerintah pusat memberikan Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU) dan Dana Bagi Hasil (DBH) untuk mendukung pengembangan wilayah dalam kebijakan otonomi daerah, selain Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD). Namun, ada anomali yang disebut flypaper effect, dimana bantuan dana tidak mendorong optimalisasi potensi wilayah. Provinsi Jawa Timur, yang konsisten menerima dana perimbangan terbesar, perlu dievaluasi dalam pengelolaan dana ini. Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji apakah Jawa Timur mengalami flypaper effect dan mengukur pengaruh PAD, DAU, serta DBH terhadap belanja daerah menggunakan metode regresi data panel. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model fixed effect dengan pengaruh individu adalah yang paling sesuai untuk analisis flypaper effect pada belanja daerah kabupaten/kota di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Variabel PAD, DAU, dan DBH semuanya berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap belanja daerah, serta menjelaskan 98,74% variasi dalam belanja daerah. Terdapat masalah heterokedastisitas pada model terpilih, yang kemudian ditangani menggunakan estimasi robust standard error. Hasil regresi model fixed effect menggunakan robust standard error menunjukkan koefisien PAD lebih besar dari DAU, sehingga tidak terjadi flypaper effect. Pemerintah daerah disimpulkan dapat merespons dana transfer dari pusat dan PAD secara seimbang, tanpa kecenderungan signifikan untuk lebih mengandalkan dana transfer dari pusat.
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The central government provides General Allocation Funds (DAU) and Revenue Sharing Funds (DBH) to support regional development within the framework of regional autonomy, in addition to locally generated revenue (PAD). However, there is an anomaly known as the flypaper effect, where the financial assistance does not encourage the optimal utilization of regional potential. East Java Province, which consistently receives the largest balancing funds, needs to be evaluated in its management of these funds. This study aims to examine whether East Java experiences the flypaper effect and to measure the impact of PAD, DAU, and DBH on regional expenditures using panel data regression methods. The analysis results show that the fixed effect model with individual effects is the most suitable for analyzing the flypaper effect on regional expenditures in East Java's municipalities/regencies. The variables PAD, DAU, and DBH all have a positive and significant impact on regional expenditures and explain 98.74% of the variation in regional expenditures. The selected model encountered heteroscedasticity issues, which were addressed using robust standard error estimation. The fixed effect model regression results with robust standard errors indicate that the PAD coefficient is greater than the DAU, thus no flypaper effect occurs. It is concluded that local governments can respond to central government transfers and PAD in a balanced manner, without a significant tendency to rely more on central government transfers.

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Belanja Daerah, Flypaper Effect, Locally-Generated Revenue, Panel Data Regression, Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Regional Expenditure, Regresi Data Panel
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Dewi Octaviani
Date Deposited:	17 Jul 2024 07:52
Last Modified:	17 Jul 2024 07:52
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/108409

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