Pemodelan Risiko Gempa Bumi di Pulau Jawa Menggunakan Space-Time ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence)

Aprillia, Dwi Tias (2024) Pemodelan Risiko Gempa Bumi di Pulau Jawa Menggunakan Space-Time ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara yang paling rentan terhadap gempa bumi, tidak terkecuali wilayah Pulau Jawa yang menjadi wilayah dengan jumlah penduduk terpadat. Pertemuan antara Lempeng Eurasia dan Lempeng Indo-Australia yang berada di sebelah selatan Pulau Jawa menjadi penyebab utama tingginya risiko gempa bumi. Kondisi Pulau Jawa ini penting untuk diadakan penelitian untuk mengetahui pemodelan persebaran gempa bumi di wilayah ini sehingga potensi kerugian dapat diantisipasi lebih baik. Penelitian sebelumnya di Pulau Jawa pernah dilakukan oleh peneliti lain belum melibatkan katalog gempa bumi secara lengkap (magnitudo, waktu, dan lokasi). Oleh karena itu akan dilakukan penelitian pemodelan risiko gempa bumi di Pulau Jawa dengan menggunakan Space-Time ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence). Metode ini dapat menganalisis gempa bumi beserta susulannya dengan melibatkan magnitudo, waktu, dan lokasi dari kejadian gempa bumi, serta mengkaitkan dengan hukum Gutenberg-Richter dan hukum Omori Utsu. Dalam penelitian ini, peneliti menganalisis gempa bumi yang terjadi pada periode 1 Januari 2003 hingga 30 Juni 2023 dengan magnitudo lebih dari atau sama dengan 4 SR dan kedalaman antara 0 hingga 300 km. Hasil analisis memberikan informasi wilayah kejadian gempa bumi di Pulau Jawa sebagian besar di bagian barat dan selatan. Wilayah tersebut antara lain sekitar Selat Sunda bagian selatan, Perairan Selatan Banten, Perairan Garut-Pangandaran, Perairan Cilacap, Perairan Selatan Jawa Timur, dan daerah sekitar Samudera Hindia. Kejadian gempa bumi susulan yang terjadi di Pulau Jawa cukup sedikit dan lokasi, waktu, serta besaran magnitudo gempa bumi utama tidak signifikan mempengaruhi kejadian gempa bumi susulan.
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Indonesia is one of the most vulnerable countries to earthquakes, including Java, which is the most populous region. The meeting between the Eurasian Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate located south of Java is the main cause of the high risk of earthquakes. This condition of Java is important for research to determine the modeling of earthquake distribution in this region so that potential losses can be better anticipated. Previous studies in Java have been conducted by other researchers, but they have not involved a complete earthquake catalog (magnitude, time, and location). Therefore, research will be conducted on earthquake risk modeling in Java using Space-Time ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence). This method employs a quantitative approach to analyze earthquakes and their aftershocks. It involves the magnitude, time, and location of the earthquake event, and relates it to the Gutenberg-Richter law and Omori Utsu law. In this study, researchers analyzed earthquakes that occurred between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2023. The earthquakes were of magnitude greater than or equal to 4 SR and had depths between 0 and 300 km. The results of the analysis provide information on the area of earthquake occurrence in Java, with the majority of events occurring in the western and southern parts of the island. These areas include the southern Sunda Strait, Southern Banten Waters, Garut-Pangandaran Waters, Cilacap Waters, Southern East Java Waters, and areas around the Indian Ocean. The occurrence of aftershocks in Java was relatively infrequent, and the location, time, and magnitude of the main earthquake did not significantly affect the occurrence of aftershocks.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Aftershocks, Earthquakes, Java, Space-Time ETAS, Gempa Bumi, Gempa Susulan, Pulau Jawa
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Dwi Tias Aprillia
Date Deposited:	13 Aug 2024 05:05
Last Modified:	13 Aug 2024 05:05
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/112909

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