Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling on Predicting East Java Province Population

Chee, Darren Kang Wan (2024) Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling on Predicting East Java Province Population. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

The human population has reached 8 billion and is still increasing every day. As one of the countries in the world with the most population, Indonesia’s population growth will surely affect the growth of the worldwide population. With constant increasing of population, in the long term it will cause environmental, social, and economic problems in the country. These problems can be resolved by monitoring the population growth and then predicting the number of populations so that governments and policymakers are able to anticipate and plan the needs of the population. This research is attempting to predict the number of populations of East Java Province using Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling where the hierarchy lies on the model’s parameters. The response variable follows a Poisson distribution and has a mixture indication. Hence, the analysis continues to build a Mixture Poisson Regression model. The mixture model is proven to be a better model for this analysis than the model of non-mixture by comparing the value of Deviance Information Criterion of both models.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Hierarchical Bayesian Model, Mixture Poisson Regression, Population Prediction; Model Bayesian Hirarki, Regresi Poisson Mixture, Prediksi Populasi
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA279.5 Bayesian statistical decision theory.
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Darren Kang Wan Chee
Date Deposited:	09 Aug 2024 03:04
Last Modified:	09 Aug 2024 03:04
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/114917

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