Pemodelan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sektor Unggulan di Pulau Jawa dengan Regresi Data Panel Dinamis Pendekatan Generalized Method Of Moment Arellano-Bond

Ramadhani, Nuraini Eva (2024) Pemodelan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Sektor Unggulan di Pulau Jawa dengan Regresi Data Panel Dinamis Pendekatan Generalized Method Of Moment Arellano-Bond. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pertumbuhan ekonomi berfungsi sebagai satu indikator keberhasilan ekonomi suatu negara. Indikator yang dapat digunakan untuk mengukur pertumbuhan ekonomi yaitu Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) pada tingkat nasional dan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) untuk tingkat daerah. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat perekonomian Indonesia secara kumulatif sepanjang 2023 berhasil tumbuh mencapai 5,05 persen. BPS juga menjelaskan struktur ekonomi Indonesia secara spasial, tahun 2023 didominasi oleh kelompok provinsi di Pulau Jawa yang memberikan kontribusi ekonomi sebesar 57,05 persen. Total nilai barang dan jasa yang dihasilkan dalam kuartal keempat tahun 2023, sebanyak 64,58% berasal dari sektor industri, perdagangan, pertanian, konstruksi, dan pertambangan. Dimana 18,67 persen berasal dari sektor industri pengolahan diikuti sektor perdagangan dengan 12,94 persen. Pulau Jawa memiliki kemampuan untuk mengontrol perekonomian nasional karena berbagai keunggulan yang dimiliki. Menururt teori ekonomi, pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat dilihat melalui besarnya PDRB dimana PDRB dipengaruhi oleh perkembangan faktor-faktor produksi yang dikelompokkan menjadi empat jenis, yaitu tenaga kerja, tanah dan sumber daya alam lainnya, modal, serta pengusaha. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan karakteristik dan mendapatkan model PDRB pada sektor unggulan provinsi di Pulau Jawa berdasarkan faktor-faktor yang diduga memengaruhinya seperti PMA, PMDN, jumlah tenaga kerja, dan upah riil. Metode yang digunakan adalah Regresi Data Panel Dinamis pendekatan Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Arellano-Bond yang menghasilkan penduga tidak bias, konsisten, serta efisien. Sumber data berasal dari website BPS dan website BKPM dengan sampel enam provinsi di Pulau Jawa dengan priode pengamatan tahun 2017 hingga 2023. Berdasarakan hasil estimasi menggunakan data panel dinamis pendekatan GMM Arellano-Bond didapatkan bahwasannya pada estimasi model PDRB sektor Perdagangan variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan antaranya Lag.PDRBP, PMAP, dan PMDNP. PMDNP memiliki kontribusi terbesar terhadap PDRB sektor Perdagangan berdasarkan elastisitas jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Sedangkan untuk hasil estimasi model PDRB sektor Industri variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan Adalah variable Lag.PDRBI, PMAI, dan TKI dimana PMA memiliki kontribusi terbesar terhadap PDRB sektor Industri berdasarkan elastisitas jangka pendek dan jangka Panjang.
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Economic growth serves as an indicator of a country's economic success. Indicators that can be used to measure economic growth are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the national level and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) at the regional level. The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) noted that the Indonesian economy cumulatively throughout 2023 managed to grow by 5.05 percent. BPS also explained that Indonesia's economic structure spatially, in 2023, was dominated by a group of provinces in Java Island which contributed 57.05 percent of the economy. The total value of goods and services produced in the fourth quarter of 2023, as much as 64.58% came from the industrial, trade, agricultural, construction and mining sectors. Where 18.67 percent came from the processing industry sector followed by the trade sector with 12.94 percent. Java Island has the ability to control the national economy due to its various advantages. According to economic theory, economic growth can be seen through the amount of GRDP where GRDP is influenced by the development of factors of production which are grouped into four types, namely labor, land and other natural resources, capital, and entrepreneurs. This study aims to describe the characteristics and obtain a model of GRDP in the leading sectors of provinces on the island of Java based on factors that are thought to influence it such as FDI, PMDN, total labor, and real wages. The method used is Dynamic Panel Data Regression with Generalized Method of Moment Arellano-Bond approach that produces unbiased, consistent, and efficient estimators. The data source comes from the BPS website and BKPM website with a sample of six provinces in Java Island with the observation period from 2017 to 2023. Based on the estimation results using dynamic panel data using the GMM Arellano-Bond approach, it is found that in the estimation of the GRDP model of the Trade sector, the variables that have a significant effect include Lag.PDRBP, PMAP, and PMDNP. PMDNP has the largest contribution to GRDP of Trade sector based on short-term and long-term elasticity. As for the estimation results of the GDRP model in the Industrial sector, the variables that have a significant effect are Lag.PDRBI, PMAI, and TKI where PMA has the largest contribution to GDRP in the Industrial sector based on short-term and long-term elasticity.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	PDRB Sektor Unggulan, Pulau Jawa, Regresi Panel Dinamis, Generalized Method of Moments(GMM), Arellano-Bond, GDRP of Leading Sectors, Java Island, Dynamic Panel Regressions, Generalized Method of Moments(GMM), Arellano-Bond.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis.
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Nuraini Eva Ramadhani
Date Deposited:	08 Aug 2024 09:01
Last Modified:	08 Aug 2024 09:02
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/114935

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