Predicting the Number of Toddlers Infected with Pneumonia and Their Relation to Air Pollution Levels in Surabaya Based on Transfer Function Analysis Techniques

Laurens, Shintya (2024) Predicting the Number of Toddlers Infected with Pneumonia and Their Relation to Air Pollution Levels in Surabaya Based on Transfer Function Analysis Techniques. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Jawa Timur mencatat jumlah kasus pneumonia tertinggi pada anak-anak di bawah lima tahun di Indonesia, dengan total mencapai 74.071 kasus pada tahun 2021. Studi sebelumnya telah menganalisis faktor-faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi balita yang terinfeksi pneumonia, dan salah satu faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi mereka adalah polusi udara atau hubungannya dengan penurunan kualitas udara. Dalam studi ini, jumlah balita yang terinfeksi pneumonia pada periode mendatang akan diprediksi berdasarkan indeks polutan udara di Kota Surabaya menggunakan model fungsi transfer. Peramalan menggunakan model fungsi transfer dimulai dengan membangun model ARIMA pada data indeks polutan udara, di mana kemudian model terbaik yang dihasilkan dari analisis deret waktu digunakan untuk memprediksi jumlah balita yang terinfeksi pneumonia sebagai deret keluaran. Hasil analisis model ARIMA untuk peramalan indeks polutan udara adalah ARIMA (0,1,1), yang kemudian menghasilkan model fungsi transfer akhir untuk memprediksi jumlah balita yang terinfeksi pneumonia, yaitu model b,r,s (0,0,0) dengan deret noise ARIMA (1,0,0), di mana hasil peramalan membentuk pola tren menurun pada periode Januari 2023 – Juni 2023.

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translate to bahasa: East Java recorded the highest number of pneumonia cases in children under five in Indonesia, reaching a total of 74,071 cases in 2021. Previous studies analyzed factors that could influence toddlers infected with pneumonia, and one of the factors that could affect them is air pollution or its relation to the decline in air quality. In this study, the number of toddlers infected with pneumonia in the future period will be forecasted based on the air pollutant index in Surabaya City using the transfer function model. The forecasting using the transfer function model begins with building an ARIMA model on the air pollutant index data, where then the best model resulting from time series analysis is used to forecast the number of toddlers infected with pneumonia as the output series. The analysis results of the ARIMA model for forecasting the air pollutant index are ARIMA (0,1,1), which then produces the final transfer function model for forecasting the number of toddlers infected with pneumonia, namely the b,r,s model (0,0,0) with ARIMA noise series (1,0,0), where the forecast results form a decreasing trend pattern in the period January 2023 – June 2023.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	air pollutant, pneumonia, time series, transfer function, polusi udara, pneumonia, deret waktu, fungsi transfer.
Subjects:	Q Science Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry) Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA280 Box-Jenkins forecasting
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Shintya Laurens
Date Deposited:	09 Aug 2024 04:48
Last Modified:	09 Aug 2024 04:48
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/115032

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