Arima Intervention Modeling On Generic Drug Sales Revenue Of PT XYZ

Nalasatya, I Gusti Bagus Ardavendra (2024) Arima Intervention Modeling On Generic Drug Sales Revenue Of PT XYZ. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

In the years 2020 to 2023, Indonesia faced serious challenges in combating the global COVID-19 pandemic. PT XYZ, one of the major players in the pharmaceutical industry in Indonesia, plays a strategic role in providing essential medicines for the public. In the COVID-19 pandemic situation, this company stands at the forefront to ensure an adequate supply of medicines to meet the health needs of the community. The company should consider it crucial to anticipate revenue fluctuations in drug sales concerning the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, this research will perform the ARIMA Intervention method. Interventions can encompass events such as COVID-19 that can influence data patterns. ARIMA Intervention is proven to be an appropriate method for modeling intervened data and is superior to other methods. The research variable is the generic drug sales revenue, recorded daily from January 1st, 2021, to January 31st, 2024. There are 2 interventions that occurred from October 1st, 2022, to December 4th, 2022, and from March 30, 2023 to May 14, 2023. The best model selection is based on the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. The best model obtained is ARIMA ([1,2,3,4,5,6,31,50], 1, [21,24,26,32,33]) b1=18, s1=0, r1=0, b2=23, s2=0, r2=0 with a MAPE value of 7.04%. The highest forecast is on February 7th, 2024, which is in the range of IDR7,424,511.365 - IDR12,908,399.63.
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Pada tahun 2020 hingga 2023, Indonesia menghadapi tantangan serius dalam memerangi pandemi global COVID-19. PT XYZ, salah satu pemain utama dalam industri farmasi di Indonesia, memiliki peran strategis dalam menyediakan obat-obatan esensial bagi masyarakat. Dalam situasi pandemi COVID-19, perusahaan ini berada di garda terdepan untuk memastikan pasokan obat-obatan yang memadai untuk memenuhi kebutuhan kesehatan masyarakat. Perusahaan harus mempertimbangkan untuk mengantisipasi fluktuasi pendapatan dari penjualan obat dalam kaitannya dengan situasi pandemi COVID-19. Variabel penelitian ini adalah data pendapatan penjualan obat generik yang dicatat secara harian dari tanggal 1 Januari 2021 hingga 31 Januari 2024. Terdapat 2 intervensi yang terjadi yaitu pada 1 Oktober 2022 s.d. 4 Desember 2022, dan 30 Maret 2023 s.d. 14 Mei 2023. Pemilihan model terbaik berdasarkan nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) terendah. Model terbaik yang diperoleh adalah ARIMA ([1,2,3,4,5,6,31,50], 1, [21,24,26,32,33]) b1=18, s1=0, r1=0, b2=23, s2=0, r2=0 dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 7,04%. Peramalan tertinggi adalah pada tanggal 7 Februari 2024, yaitu berkisar antara Rp7.424.511,365 - Rp12.908.399,63.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMA, COVID-19, Drug Sales Revenue, Intervention, Intervensi, Pendapatan Penjualan Obat
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	I Gusti Bagus Ardavendra Nalasatya
Date Deposited:	27 Aug 2024 05:16
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2024 05:16
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/115079

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