Prediksi Financial Distress pada Perusahaan Sektor Consumer Cyclicals Menggunakan Pendekatan Regresi Logistik

Putri, Nur Sinta Dewi (2025) Prediksi Financial Distress pada Perusahaan Sektor Consumer Cyclicals Menggunakan Pendekatan Regresi Logistik. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 2043211015_Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 April 2027. Download (1MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Financial distress merupakan suatu kondisi perusahaan yang mengalami kesulitan keuangan yang dapat mengakibatkan perusahaan mengalami kebangkrutan. Beberapa perusahaan dapat menghadapi risiko kebangkrutan, salah satunya adalah perusahaan pada sektor consumer cyclicals. Sektor consumer cyclicals atau barang konsumen non primer merupakan industri yang memproduksi dan mendistribusikan produk atau jasa yang memiliki sifat sangat dipengaruhi oleh kondisi ekonomi dan siklus bisnis perusahaan, sehingga rentan terhadap masalah keuangan. Maka dari itu, dilakukan penelitian untuk memprediksi kondisi financial distress perusahaan sektor consumer cyclicals berdasarkan variabel penyusunnnya yaitu ROA, Debt Ratio, dan Current Ratio. Metode yang digunakan dalam prediksi financial distress adalah metode pendekatan regresi logstik. Sebelum memprediksi financial distress, perlu meramalkan variabel penyusun tersebut pada periode selanjutnya. Metode yang digunakan untuk meramalkan variabel penyusun menggunakan Single Exponential Smoothing. Hasil peramalan 6 periode ke depan menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing untuk variabel Debt Ratio dan Current Ratio pada setiap perusahaan konstan. Hasil peramalan Debt Ratio pada perusahaan MASA sebesar 0,173, perusahaan TFCO sebesar 0,075, perusahaan CSAP sebesar 0,691, dan perusahaan TRIO sebesar 39,835. Hasil peramalan Current Ratio pada perusahaan MASA sebesar 3,217, perusahaan TFCO sebesar 5,792, perusahaan CSAP sebesar 1,060, dan perusahaan TRIO sebesar 0,032. Hasil prediksi financial distress 6 periode ke depan berdasarkan peramalan rasio keuangan pada perusahaan Multistrada Arah Sarana Tbk (MASA), Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO), Catur Sentosa Adiprana Tbk (CSAP) adalah non distress, sedangkan pada perusahaan Trikomsel Oke Tbk (TRIO) adalah distress.
==================================================================================================================================
Financial distress is a condition of a company experiencing financial difficulties that can result in the company experiencing bankruptcy. Several companies can face the risk of bankruptcy, one of which is a company in the consumer cyclicals sector. The consumer cyclicals sector or non-primary consumer goods is an industry that produces and distributes products or services that are highly influenced by economic conditions and the company's business cycle, making it vulnerable to financial problems. Therefore, research was conducted to predict the financial distress condition of consumer cyclicals sector companies based on the constituent variables, namely ROA, Debt Ratio, and Current Ratio. The method used in predicting financial distress is the logistic regression approach. Before predicting financial distress, it is necessary to forecast the constituent variables in the next period. The method used to forecast the constituent variables uses Single Exponential Smoothing. The results of forecasting the next 6 periods using the Single Exponential Smoothing method for the Debt Ratio and Current Ratio variables in each company are constant. The Debt Ratio forecasting results for the MASA company amounted to 0,173, the TFCO company amounted to 0,075, the CSAP company amounted to 0,691, and the TRIO company amounted to 39,835. Current Ratio forecasting results for the MASA company amounted to 3,217, the TFCO company amounted to 5,792, the CSAP company amounted to 1,060, and the TRIO company amounted to 0,032. The results of the prediction of financial distress in the next 6 periods based on forecasting financial ratios in the companies Multistrada Arah Sarana Tbk (MASA), Tifico Fiber Indonesia Tbk (TFCO), Chess Sentosa Adiprana Tbk (CSAP) are non distress, while in the company Trikomsel Oke Tbk (TRIO) is distress.

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Consumer Cyclicals, Financial distress, Logistic Regression, Single Exponential Smoothing, Regresi Logistik
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis.
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Nur Sinta Dewi Putri
Date Deposited:	22 Jan 2025 07:10
Last Modified:	22 Jan 2025 07:10
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/116581

Actions (login required)

View Item