Business Sustainability Pada Industri Batu Bara Dalam Konteks Rantai Pasok

Fidry, Firman Risqul (2025) Business Sustainability Pada Industri Batu Bara Dalam Konteks Rantai Pasok. Doctoral thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Industri pertambangan menghadapi ketidakpastian yang signifikan akibat risiko operasional, bisnis, dan keuangan. Di sektor batu bara Indonesia, ketidakpastian bisnis ini diperparah oleh tantangan ketidakpastian rantai pasokan yang berdampak besar pada business sustainability. Perusahaan yang terlibat langsung dalam kegiatan produksi dan bisnis batu bara di Indonesia yaitu perusahaan batu bara baik pemilik IUP maupun IUJP, dimana penentuan faktor ketidakpastian dalam aktifitas penambangan maupun penjualan sangat mempengaruhi decision making dalam rangka penentuan strategi bisnis dan operasionalnya. Manajemen risiko yang efektif sangat penting untuk mencapai business sustainability jangka pendek dan jangka panjang di sektor ini. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model penilaian ketidakpastian dan mitigasi risiko yang komprehensif untuk meningkatkan keberlanjutan industri batu bara Indonesia. Penelitian ini mengidentifikasi sembilan risiko utama melalui proses penilaian yang sistematis. Pendekatan Bayesian Network digunakan untuk menganalisis hubungan kausal antara ketidakpastian antar risiko secara sistematis, dimana nilai probabilitas setiap risiko dihitung untuk menghasilkan probabilitas prior dan posterior. Selain itu, kerangka House of Risk yang dimodifikasi yang menggabungkan Aggregate Risk Potential (ARP) diterapkan untuk memprioritaskan risiko kritis dan tindakan mitigasi yang sesuai. Analisis Bayesian Network menyoroti penurunan cadangan batu bara sebagai ketidakpastian rantai pasok kritis, di samping ketidakpastian bisnis lain yang berdampak signifikan pada industri antara lain perubahan kebijakan yang cenderung cepat. Kerangka House of Risk yang dimodifikasi mengidentifikasi lima ketidakpastian kritis dengan nilai ARP tertinggi. Prioritas mitigasi yaitu peningkatan kompetensi sumber daya manusia di industri pertambangan diidentifikasi sebagai tindakan yang paling kritis. Studi ini memadukan metodologi inovatif untuk memberikan pendekatan yang terstruktur dan objektif terhadap manajemen risiko. Temuannya menawarkan wawasan berharga bagi para pengambil keputusan, yang berkontribusi pada pembangunan berkelanjutan sektor batubara Indonesia di tengah meningkatnya ketidakpastian.
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ABSTRACT

The mining industry faces significant uncertainty due to operational, business, and financial risks. In the Indonesian coal sector, this business uncertainty is exacerbated by the challenge of supply chain uncertainty which has a major impact on business sustainability. Companies directly involved in coal production and business activities in Indonesia are coal companies, both IUP and IUJP owners, where the determination of uncertainty factors in mining and sales activities greatly influences decision making in determining their business and operational strategies. Effective risk management is essential to achieving short-term and long-term business sustainability in this sector. This study aims to develop a comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation model to improve the sustainability of the Indonesian coal industry. This study identifies nine key risks through a systematic assessment process. The Bayesian Network approach is used to systematically analyze the causal relationship between uncertainty between risks, where the probability value of each risk is calculated to produce prior and posterior probabilities. In addition, a modified House of Risk framework incorporating Aggregate Risk Potential (ARP) is applied to prioritize critical risks and appropriate mitigation actions. The Bayesian Network analysis highlights the decline in coal reserves as a critical supply chain uncertainty, in addition to other business uncertainties that have a significant impact on the industry, including rapid policy changes. The modified House of Risk framework identified five critical uncertainties with the highest ARP values. Mitigation priority, namely improving human resource competency in the mining industry, was identified as the most critical action. This study combines innovative methodologies to provide a structured and objective approach to risk management. The findings offer valuable insights for decision makers, contributing to the sustainable development of the Indonesian coal sector amidst increasing uncertainty.
Keywords: Bayesian Network, business sustainability, business uncertainty, supply chain uncertainty, risk management.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Bayesian Network, business sustainability, ketidakpastian bisnis, ketidakpastian rantai pasok, manajemen risiko .
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174.5 Technology--Risk assessment.
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 66105-Doctor of Technology Management (DMT)
Depositing User:	Firman Risqul Fidry
Date Deposited:	24 Jan 2025 03:40
Last Modified:	24 Jan 2025 03:40
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/116779

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