Ramadhani, Rachmad Noval (2025) Pemodelan Jumlah Kasus Pneumonia Pada Balita Di Provinsi Jawa Barat Menggunakan Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
![[thumbnail of 2043211058-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf]](http://repository.its.ac.id/style/images/fileicons/text.png) |
Text
2043211058-Undergraduate_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 April 2027. Download (25MB) | Request a copy |
Abstract
Pneumonia adalah infeksi saluran pernapasan akut yang menyerang paru-paru dan menjadi penyebab utama kematian akibat infeksi pada anak-anak di seluruh dunia, termasuk Indonesia. Pada tahun 2023, Provinsi Jawa Barat mencatat jumlah kasus pneumonia balita tertinggi, dengan 102.576 kasus, diikuti oleh Jawa Timur dan Jawa Tengah. Jumlah kasus pneumonia balita di Jawa Barat terus meningkat dalam tiga tahun terakhir, menjadikannya masalah serius. Untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi jumlah kasus pneumonia balita di Jawa Barat, digunakan Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR), yang mempertimbangkan efek spasial antar wilayah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa jumlah kasus pneumonia balita tertinggi terdapat di Kabupaten Bandung dan terendah di Kota Banjar. Berdasarkan analisis, kernel optimum yang digunakan adalah adaptive bisquare. Pemodelan regresi binomial negatif mengidentifikasi jumlah balita gizi kurang (X1) sebagai variabel signifikan. Sementara itu, analisis menggunakan GWNBR membentuk dua kelompok kabupaten/kota berdasarkan kesamaan variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap jumlah kasus Pneumonia balita di Jawa Barat tahun 2023. Variabel signifikan di semua kabupaten/kota adalah jumlah balita gizi kurang (X1), persentase Rumah Tangga Berperilaku Hidup Bersih dan Sehat (PHBS) (X3), persentase bayi menerima Inisiasi Menyusui Dini (IMD) (X4), dan persentase ibu hamil melakukan pemeriksaan kehamilan K6 (X5). Berdasarkan nilai AIC, model GWNBR sebesar 469,44 lebih kecil dibandingkan regresi binomial negatif sebesar 491,99.
==================================================================================================================================
Pneumonia is an acute respiratory infection that attacks the lungs and is the leading cause of death due to infections in children around the world, including Indonesia. In 2023, West Java Province recorded the highest number of cases of pneumonia under five years old, with 102,576 cases, followed by East Java and Central Java. The number of cases of pneumonia among toddlers in West Java has continued to increase in the past three years, making it a serious problem. To analyze the factors influencing the number of cases of pneumonia in toddlers in West Java, Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) was used, which considers the spatial effects between regions. The results of the study show that the highest number of cases of pneumonia for toddlers is found in Bandung Regency and the lowest in Banjar City. Based on the analysis, the optimal kernel used is adaptive bisquare. Negative binomial regression modeling identified the number of undernourished toddlers (X1) as a significant variable. Meanwhile, the analysis using GWNBR formed two groups of districts/cities based on the similarity of variables that had a significant effect on the number of cases of Pneumonia under five in West Java in 2023. Significant variables in all districts/cities were the number of undernourished toddlers (X1), the percentage of Households with Clean and Healthy Living Behavior (PHBS) (X3), the percentage of babies receiving Early Breastfeeding Initiation (IMD) (X4), and the percentage of pregnant women doing K6 pregnancy checks (X5). Based on the AIC value, the GWNBR model of 469.44 is smaller than the negative binomial regression of 491.99.
Actions (login required)
 |
View Item |