Tasbihi, Naufal Luthfan (2025) Analisis Komparatif Fungsi Kepadatan Peluang Lokasi dalam Model Space-Time Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (Space-Time ETAS): Studi Kasus Analisis Gempa Bumi di Sulawesi-Maluku. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Sulawesi-Maluku sangat rentan terhadap gempa bumi akibat interaksi antara Lempeng Indo-Australia, Lempeng Eurasia, dan Lempeng Laut Filipina. Selain itu, Sulawesi-Maluku memiliki banyak busur yang pendek dan menyebar serta terdapat tumbukan aktif yang rentan terhadap gempa swarm. Oleh karena itu, dilakukan pemodelan gempa bumi dengan metode Space-Time ETAS (Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence) yang mengintegrasikan informasi waktu, lokasi, dan magnitudo, serta didasarkan pada hukum Gutenberg-Richter dan Omori-Utsu. Namun, mayoritas penelitian terdahulu hanya menggunakan fungsi density long decay yang mungkin kurang cocok karena perbedaan karakteristik wilayah penelitian dan model yang lebih kompleks dibandingkan short decay. Penelitian ini bertujuan membandingkan dua fungsi probabilitas lokasi pada katalog gempa bumi di Sulawesi-Maluku, mencakup kejadian dari 1 Januari 2008 hingga 1 Juni 2024 dengan ambang batas magnitudo 4 Skala Richter (SR) serta kedalaman antara 0 hingga 70 km. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar kejadian gempa bumi di Sulawesi-Maluku terjadi pada 3 zona subduksi yaitu zona tumbukan Busur Halmahera-Sangihe, zona pertemuan Sesar Palukoro-Matano, dan Seram Fold-Thrust-Belt. Model Space-Time ETAS dengan fungsi short decay dipilih karena waktu eksekusi yang lebih cepat dengan nilai MSE yang relatif sama. Selain itu, terdapat 2 parameter yang tidak signifikan pada model long decay yaitu laju peluruhan waktu kejadian gempa bumi susulan jika terdapat kejadian magnitudo tertentu dan pengaruh spasial gempa utama terhadap gempa susulan, sementara pada model short decay hanya parameter laju peluruhan waktu kejadian gempa bumi susulan jika terdapat kejadian magnitudo tertentu yang tidak signifikan. Berdasarkan model terbaik waktu kejadian gempa utama tidak signifikan mempengaruhi kejadian gempa bumi susulan.
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Sulawesi-Maluku is highly susceptible to earthquakes due to the interactions among the Indo-Australian Plate, the Eurasian Plate, and the Philippine Sea Plate. Additionally, Sulawesi-Maluku features numerous short and dispersed arcs and active collisions that are prone to swarm earthquakes. Consequently, earthquake modeling was conducted using the Space-Time ETAS (Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence) method, which integrates information on time, location, and magnitude, and is based on the Gutenberg-Richter and Omori-Utsu laws. However, the majority of previous studies have only utilized the long decay density function, which may be less suitable due to differences in the study area's characteristics and the greater complexity of the model compared to the short decay function. This research aims to compare two location probability functions using an earthquake catalog from Sulawesi-Maluku, encompassing events from January 1, 2008, to June 1, 2024, with a magnitude threshold of 4 Scale Richter (SR) and depths between 0 and 70 km. The analysis results indicate that most earthquake events in Sulawesi-Maluku occur within three subduction zones: the Halmahera-Sangihe Arc collision zone, the Palukoro-Matano Fault meeting zone, and the Seram Fold-Thrust Belt. The Space-Time ETAS model with the short decay function was selected due to its faster execution time and relatively similar Mean Squared Error (MSE) values. Additionally, two parameters were found to be insignificant in the long decay model, namely the rate at which aftershock activity decreases over time after the main earthquake and spatial effect of the main earthquake, whereas only the parameter was not significant in the short decay model namely the rate at which aftershock activity decreases over time after the main earthquake. Based on the optimal model, the timing of the mainshock was not found to influence the occurrence of aftershocks significantly.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Aftershocks, Sulawesi-Maluku, Location Probability Function, Space-Time ETAS, Gempa Susulan, Sulawesi-Maluku, Fungsi Probabilitas Lokasi, Space-Time ETAS |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Naufal Luthfan Tasbihi |
| Date Deposited: | 27 Jan 2025 22:15 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Jan 2025 22:15 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/116994 |
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