Analisis Penjadwalan Probabilistik Proyek Pembangunan Jalan Baru Menuju Kawasan Mabes TNI Cilangkap

Oktavienne, Zefanya Nouriel (2025) Analisis Penjadwalan Probabilistik Proyek Pembangunan Jalan Baru Menuju Kawasan Mabes TNI Cilangkap. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Faktor risiko dan ketidakpastian selama pelaksanaan proyek merupakan tantangan utama yang dapat memengaruhi ketepatan waktu penyelesaian. Keterlambatan proyek sering kali menyebabkan dampak negatif, seperti peningkatan biaya dan gangguan terhadap target operasional. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan pendekatan analisis penjadwalan yang mampu mempertimbangkan berbagai faktor ketidakpastian yang terjadi di lapangan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan jadwal pelaksanaan proyek berbasis probabilistik menggunakan metode simulasi Monte Carlo. Sebagai studi kasus, proyek pembangunan jalan menuju kawasan Mabes TNI Cilangkap dipilih untuk dianalisis. Informasi mengenai risiko proyek diperoleh melalui kajian literatur dan wawancara dengan para praktisi yang terlibat secara langsung. Dalam penelitian ini, Probability Distribution Function (PDF) untuk aktivitas proyek diasumsikan mengikuti distribusi triangular guna menyederhanakan proses analisis. Selanjutnya, jadwal probabilistik yang dihasilkan dibandingkan dengan jadwal deterministik yang diterapkan di proyek tersebut. Hasil simulasi penjadwalan probabilistik menunjukkan bahwa proyek diproyeksikan selesai dalam 163,38 hari dengan probabilitas keberhasilan sebesar 50% (P50) dan waktu kontingensi sebesar 7,39 hari untuk mencapai tingkat keyakinan 80% (P80). Durasi pesimis (P100), yaitu durasi maksimal dalam skenario terburuk, tercatat 188 hari. Di sisi lain, metode penjadwalan deterministik menghasilkan estimasi waktu penyelesaian proyek sebesar 153,85 hari. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan deterministik belum bisa mengakomodasi ketidakpastian dan risiko yang terdapat di lapangan sehingga diperlukan perlunya pendekatan probabilistik untuk menghasilkan jadwal yang lebih realistis dan adaptif terhadap kondisi di lapangan.
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The risk factors and uncertainties during project implementation pose significant challenges that can affect the accuracy of project completion timelines. Project delays often result in negative impacts, such as increased costs and disruptions to operational targets. Therefore, a scheduling analysis approach that considers various uncertainties in the field is essential. This study aims to develop a probabilistic project schedule using the Monte Carlo simulation method. As a case study, the road construction project leading to the Mabes TNI Cilangkap area was selected for analysis. Information regarding project risks was obtained through a literature review and interviews with practitioners directly involved in the project. In this study, the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) for project activities was assumed to follow a triangular distribution to simplify the analysis process. Subsequently, the probabilistic schedule generated was compared to the deterministic schedule implemented in the project. The results of the probabilistic scheduling simulation indicate that the project is projected to be completed in 163.38 days with a 50% probability of success (P50) and a contingency time of 7.39 days to achieve an 80% confidence level (P80). The pessimistic duration (P100), or the maximum duration in a worst-case scenario, was recorded at 188 days. On the other hand, the deterministic scheduling method estimated the project completion time to be 153.85 days. These findings show that the deterministic approach is unable to accommodate the uncertainties and risks in the field. Therefore, a probabilistic approach is needed to produce a schedule that is more realistic and adaptive to conditions in the field.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Penjadwalan, Probabilitas, Simulasi Monte Carlo, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probability, Scheduling
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Zefanya Nouriel Oktavienne
Date Deposited:	30 Jan 2025 03:04
Last Modified:	30 Jan 2025 03:04
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/117077

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