Analisis Kelayakan Investasi Proyek Pada Transmisi Tegangan Tinggi PT Bumisuksesindo Dengan Metode Monte Carlo

Syahriannanda, Kinanta (2025) Analisis Kelayakan Investasi Proyek Pada Transmisi Tegangan Tinggi PT Bumisuksesindo Dengan Metode Monte Carlo. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

PT.PLN perlu membangun infrastruktur kelistrikan sebagai upaya menambah kapasitas daya listrik PT Bumisuksesindo, agar proses produksi tambang di Jawa Timur meningkat. PT.PLN memiliki rencana skema investasi yaitu; (1) skema satu membangun Transmisi Genteng Incomer dan Gardu Induk Genteng Ext, (2) skema dua membangun Transmisi Genteng Incomer, GI Genteng Ext, Transmisi Genteng-BSI dan GI BSI Ext dengan pendanaan PT.PLN, (3) skema tiga menggunakan sistem Built Transfer Operate (BTO). Tujuan penelitian ini menganalisis kelayakan investasi pembangunan infrastuktur kelistrikan PT Bumisuksesindo
Analisis kelayakan investasi proyek dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) dan B/C ratio, untuk membandingkan dua atau lebih proyek investasi menggunakan metode Incremental Rate of Return (Inc IRR). Sedangkan dalam menentukan batasan tarif penjualan listrik menggunakan kombinasi metode NPV dan Monte Carlo.
Pada penelitian ini, hasil yang menunjukkan nilai IRR di atas MARR adalah pada skema satu dan skema tiga. Lingkup skema satu dengan biaya Rp220M memiliki IRR sebesar 31,22%, NPV Rp490.672.481, dan rasio B/C 1,23. Lingkup skema tiga IRR sebesar 16,10%, NPV Rp468.559.262, dan rasio B/C sebesar 1.
Berdasarkan hasil analisis incremental rate of return, skema satu memberikan pengembalian tambahan yang sangat menguntungkan dibandingkan skema tiga. Skema satu adalah skema terpilih dengan lingkup pembangunan Transmisi Genteng Incomer dan Gardu Induk Genteng Ext. Sedangkan hasil metode Monte Carlo diperoleh tarif penjualan listrik antara PT.PLN (Persero) dan PT Bumisuksesindo sebesar Rp1.434,89/kWh dengan nilai tarif minimum Rp 1.161/kWh
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PT.PLN must construct electrical infrastructure to enhance the power capacity of PT Bumisuksesindo, hence improving the mining production process in East Java. PT.PLN has devised an investment scheme comprising: (1) scheme one for the construction of the Genteng Incomer Transmission and Genteng Ext Substation, (2) scheme two for the development of the Genteng Incomer Transmission, Genteng Ext Substation, Genteng-BSI Transmission, and BSI Ext Substation, financed by PT.PLN, and (3) scheme three utilizing the Build Transfer Operate (BTO) model. This research aims to evaluate the investment viability of constructing electrical infrastructure for PT Bumisuksesindo.
This study's feasibility analysis of the investment project employs the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Benefit-Cost (B/C) ratio, methodologies to compare many investment projects with the Incremental Rate of Return (Inc IRR) approach. In establishing the boundaries for electricity sales tariffs, a combination of the Net Present Value approach and Monte Carlo simulation is employed.
This analysis indicates that the IRR values exceeding the MARR are seen in scheme one and scheme three. The parameters of scheme one, which incurs a cost of Rp220M, include an internal rate of return (IRR) of 31.22%, a net present value (NPV) of Rp490,672,481, and a benefit-cost (B/C) ratio of 1.23. Scheme three has an IRR of 16.10%, an NPV of Rp468,559,262, and a B/C ratio of 1.
According to the examination of the incremental rate of return, scheme one offers a substantially greater additional profit than scheme three. Scheme one is the chosen plan for the development of the Genteng Incomer Transmission and Genteng Extension Substation. Simultaneously, the Monte Carlo approach produced an electricity sales price of Rp1,434.89/kWh between PT.PLN (Persero) and PT Bumisuksesindo, with a minimum tariff value of Rp1,161/kWh

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	analisis investasi, NPV, IRR, B/C ratio, incremental rate of return, monte carlo, PPP,tenaga listrik
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Kinanta Syahriannanda
Date Deposited:	02 Feb 2025 06:50
Last Modified:	02 Feb 2025 06:50
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/117504

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