Studi Kelayakan Finansial Pengerukan di Alur Pelayaran Berau menggunakan Analisis Sensitivitas

Rahma, Fitri Aulia (2025) Studi Kelayakan Finansial Pengerukan di Alur Pelayaran Berau menggunakan Analisis Sensitivitas. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Studi ini difokuskan pada analisis kelayakan finansial pengerukan alur pelayaran Berau di Kalimantan Timur, Indonesia, yang merupakan jalur penting pengangkutan batu bara. Sedimentasi yang terjadi mengakibatkan seringnya tongkang kandas, mengganggu operasi, dan meningkatkan biaya operasional. Untuk mengatasi tantangan ini, analisis kuantitatif dilakukan dengan menggunakan data harga batu bara historis dari tahun 2009 hingga 2024. Metode peramalan Holt-Winters, yang menggabungkan komponen musiman dan tren, digunakan untuk memprediksi harga batu bara di masa mendatang. Perkiraan estimasi peningkatan produksi batu bara setelah pengerukan menjadi dasar untuk mengevaluasi kelayakan finansial proyek. Metrik keuangan utama, termasuk NPV, IRR, Payback Period, dan Profitability Index, digunakan untuk mengevaluasi kelayakan ekonomi proyek. Hasilnya menunjukkan NPV positif, IRR 89%, payback period dua tahun, dan PI 1,01, yang menunjukkan kelayakan finansial yang kuat. Analisis sensitivitas mengonfirmasi ketahanan investasi dalam berbagai skenario harga batu bara. Studi ini menyimpulkan bahwa pengerukan akan meningkatkan kapasitas alur secara signifikan, memungkinkan pengoperasian tongkang yang lebih besar, dan mengurangi biaya transportasi. Infrastruktur yang ditingkatkan ini diharapkan dapat memberikan manfaat ekonomi jangka panjang dan meningkatkan konektivitas regional.
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This study focuses on the financial feasibility analysis of the dredging of the Berau shipping channel in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, which is an important route for coal transportation. The sedimentation that occurs causes barges to frequently run aground, disrupting operations, and increasing operational costs. To address these challenges, a quantitative analysis was conducted using historical coal price data from 2009 to 2024. The Holt-Winters forecasting method, which combines seasonal and trend components, was used to predict future coal prices. The estimated increase in coal production after dredging is the basis for evaluating the financial feasibility of the project. Key financial metrics, including NPV, IRR, Payback Period, and Profitability Index, were used to evaluate the economic feasibility of the project. The results showed a positive NPV, IRR of 89%, a two-year payback period, and a PI of 1.01, indicating strong financial viability. Sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the investment under various coal price scenarios. The study concluded that dredging would significantly increase the channel capacity, enable the operation of larger barges, and reduce transportation costs. This improved infrastructure is expected to provide long-term economic benefits and improve regional connectivity.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	analisis kelayakan finansial, analisis sensitivitas, batu bara, peramalan coal, financial feasibility study, forecasting, sensitivity analysis
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174 Technological forecasting T Technology > T Technology (General) > T56.8 Project Management T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.74 Linear programming V Naval Science > VK > VK358 Marine terminals
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Fitri Aulia Rahma
Date Deposited:	02 Feb 2025 04:06
Last Modified:	02 Feb 2025 04:06
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/117803

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