Study of Climate Change Effect on Precipitation in Surabaya Using Regional Climate Model

Dary, Asyam Mulayyan (2025) Study of Climate Change Effect on Precipitation in Surabaya Using Regional Climate Model. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Climate change is one of the emerging problems in this world. These changes made the usual pattern uncertain. Surabaya is no exception; the pattern of the season is changing. Historically, rainfall in Surabaya fluctuates, with an extreme event happening in 2018. Thus, there is a need to study the effects of climate change on precipitation in Surabaya, to predict the pattern of precipitation. RegCM5 was utilized in this research, with a cell resolution of 5 km spanning 60x60 in latitude and longitude respectively. The simulation started from December 2017 until November 2023, with the first year as a spin-off period. The model could replicate the climate consistently compared with the observed datasets, with this study combination as the most suitable. The precipitation shows little to no bias throughout the period, but both maximum and minimum temperatures had significant bias. Quantile Mapping bias-correction has effectively removed the bias of the temperatures and still retained the same patterns. By analyzing the earth’s energy budget, it showed that climate change was indeed happening in Surabaya, and it was getting worse. The energy budget at surface has increased from 5.6 W/m2 (September 2020) to 6.3 W/m2 (October 2023). Meanwhile for the temperature, both maximum and minimum, it increased around 1 ℃ in November 2023 compared to in 2020. The daily precipitation peak increased from 53.2 mm (May 2020) to 182.9 mm (March 2023). This increase was affected by the increase in evaporation, which increased from 0.15 mm (May 2020) to 0.22 mm (March 2023).
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Perubahan iklim adalah salah satu isu penting pada saat ini. Perubahan ini membuat pola yang ada menjadi tidak tentu. Surabaya tidak terkecuali; pola musim berubah. Secara historis, curah hujan di Surabaya berfluktuasi, dengan kejadian ekstrim di tahun 2018. Hal tersebut menjadi dasar kajian dampak perubahan iklim dan memprediksi pola hujan. RegCM5 digunakan pada penelitian ini, dengan resolusi 5 km mencakup 60x60 bujur dan lintang. Periode simulasi dimulai dari Desember 2017 hingga November 2023, dengan tahun pertama sebagai periode spin-off. Model tersebut dapat mereplikasi kondisi iklim secara konsisten dibandingkan dengan data observasi, menggunakan hasil studi ini sebagai kombinasi yang paling cocok. Curah hujan memiliki bias mendekati nol, namun temperatur maksimum dan minimum memiliki bias yang signifikan. Metode koreksi bias Quantile-Mapping secara efektif mengeliminasi bias pada temperatur dengan mempertahankan pola yang sama. Berdasrkan analisa budget earth’s energy budget (EEB), dapat dilihat bahwa perubahan iklim memang terjadi di Surabaya dan semakin memburuk. EEB permukaan meningkat dari 5,6 W/m2 (September 2020) menjadi 6,3 W/m2 (October 2023). Temperatur juga meningkat 1 ℃ pada November 2023 dibanding pada tahun 2020. Curah hujan harian meningkat dari 53,2 mm (Mei 2020) menjadi 182,9 mm (Maret 2023). Peningkatan ini dikarenakan oleh naiknya evaporasi, yang mana meningkat dari 0,15 mm (Mei 2020) menjadi 0,22 mm (Maret 2023).

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate change, precipitation, RegCM5, regional climate model, rainfall, hujan, model iklim regional, perubahan iklim, presipitasi
Subjects:	T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering > TD171.75 Climate change mitigation
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Environmental Engineering > 25101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Asyam Mulayyan Dary
Date Deposited:	03 Feb 2025 16:21
Last Modified:	03 Feb 2025 16:21
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/117994

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