Peramalan Nilai Ekspor Non-Migas Sektor Industri Dan Pertanian Berdasarkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dollar Amerika Di Jawa Barat

Nabhan, Muhammad Sulthan (2025) Peramalan Nilai Ekspor Non-Migas Sektor Industri Dan Pertanian Berdasarkan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dollar Amerika Di Jawa Barat. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Text 2043211074-Undergraduete_Thesis.pdf - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only until 1 April 2027. Download (2MB) | Request a copy

Abstract

Perekonomian suatu negara sangat dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor, termasuk pertumbuhan ekonomi yang didorong oleh perdagangan internasional. Dalam konteks ini, ekspor non-migas memiliki peran penting dalam meningkatkan pendapatan devisa dan mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi. Jawa Barat, sebagai kontributor utama, mencatat nilai ekspor non-migas sebesar US$36.276,5 juta pada 2023, dengan pertumbuhan 15,76% dari 2019 hingga 2023. Namun, fluktuasi nilai tukar rupiah dapat memengaruhi daya saing ekspor, sehingga strategi yang efektif diperlukan untuk menghadapinya. Memahami pengaruh nilai tukar terhadap ekspor non-migas dapat dilakukan dengan model peramalan yang tepat, seperti fungsi transfer. Metode ini menggabungkan ARIMA dengan analisis regresi, menghasilkan prediksi yang lebih akurat untuk mendukung pengambilan keputusan strategis dan memperkuat stabilitas ekonomi nasional. Hasil pemodelan menunjukkan bahwa nilai ekspor non migas sektor industri memiliki nilai RMSE sebesar 380419,72 dan MAPE 11,06% yang artinya model sudah baik. Nilai ekspor sektor pertanian memiliki nilai RMSE sebesar 6019,0214 dan MAPE 26,83% yang artinya model sudah cukup baik. Nilai ekspor non migas sektor industri tertinggi di Jawa Barat terjadi pada bulan September 2024 dan terendah pada bulan Juni 2024. Pergerakan nilai ekspor non migas sektor industri cenderung menunjukan tren menurun. Nilai ekspor non migas sektor pertanian tertinggi di Jawa Barat terjadi pada bulan Mei 2025 dan terendah pada bulan Juni 2024. Pergerakan nilai ekspor non migas sektor pertanain cenderung menunjukan tren naik.
==================================================================================================================================
The economy of a country is significantly influenced by various factors, including economic growth driven by international trade. In this context, non-oil and gas exports play a crucial role in increasing foreign exchange earnings and supporting economic growth. West Java, as a major contributor, recorded non-oil and gas export values of US$36,276.5 million in 2023, with a growth rate of 15.76% from 2019 to 2023. However, fluctuations in the rupiah exchange rate can impact export competitiveness, necessitating effective strategies to address these challenges.Understanding the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on non-oil and gas exports can be achieved through appropriate forecasting models, such as the transfer function method. This method combines ARIMA with regression analysis, yielding more accurate predictions to support strategic decision-making and strengthen national economic stability. The modeling results indicate that non-oil and gas export values in the industrial sector had an RMSE of 380,419.72 and a MAPE of 11.06%, signifying a good model. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector's non-oil and gas exports showed an RMSE of 6019,0214 and a MAPE of 26,83%, indicating a reasonably good model. The highest non-oil and gas export values for the industrial sector in West Java occurred in September 2024, while the lowest were recorded in June 2024. The export values for the industrial sector tend to show a downward trend. Conversely, the highest non-oil and gas export values for the agricultural sector occurred in May 2025, while the lowest were in June 2024, with the agricultural sector showing an upward trend.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMA, Ekspor Non Migas, Fungsi Transfer, Peramalan
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Muhammad Sulthan Nabhan
Date Deposited:	04 Feb 2025 02:24
Last Modified:	04 Feb 2025 02:24
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/118097

Actions (login required)

View Item