Pengembangan Model Pertempuran Laut Berbasis Lanchester Square Law

Artanto, David (2025) Pengembangan Model Pertempuran Laut Berbasis Lanchester Square Law. Doctoral thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model matematika yang menggambarkan dinamika pertempuran laut dengan fokus pada keandalan kapal dalam menghadapi serangan. Model ini mengadaptasi Lanchester Square Law, yang telah dikembangkan untuk konteks pertempuran laut antara kapal permukaan, dengan mempertimbangkan faktor-faktor seperti hit probability, kill probability, dan kesiapan material kapal. Selain itu, penelitian ini mengintegrasikan Bayesian Network untuk Analisa ketidakpastian pada parameter-parameter pertempuran laut, sehingga model dapat mengakomodasi perubahan kondisi yang dinamis selama pertempuran. Pengembangan model yang didapatkan melibatkan faktor hyperbolik ’k’ dengan pengujian pada rentang 0.01 hingga 0.1. Nilai ’k’ tersebut mempresentasikan jarak jangkau dari senjata artileri yang digunakan. Pada pengujian dilakukan dengan 3 skenario, sesuai dengan jarak jangkauan senjata artileri kapal perang permukaan. Di skenariokan terjadi pertempuran antara kapal perang permukaan di 3 area laut internasional. Skenario 1 di ujikan pada penembakan jarak maksimal dari senjata artileri, skenario 2 diujikan pada Jarak menengah, dan skenario 3 diujikan pada jarak 40% dari jangkauan senjata artileri. Sedangkan variable hit probability, kill probability, dan material readiness didasarkan pada kondisi asumsi lingkungan maritim. Hasil analisa pada skenario 1, kekuatan kapal yang saling terlibat pertempuran menurun secara perlahan, hal ini karena jarak tembak yang jauh, menyebabkan hit probability dan kill probability yang kecil, akan tetapi pada skenario 2 dan 3, penurunan kekuatan kapal berkurang secara drastis, karena jarak antara kedua kapal yang saling mendekat. Dari hasil pengembangan model yang didapat serta pengujian model didapat dengan pendekatan ini, model tidak hanya mengestimasi hasil pertempuran, tetapi juga mampu memberikan gambaran yang lebih realistis terkait dengan ketidakpastian yang ada dalam skenario militer.
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This research aims to develop a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of naval combat with a focus on ship reliability in the face of attack. The model adapts the Lanchester Square Law, which has been developed for the context of naval combat between surface ships, by considering factors such as hit probability, kill probability, and ship material readiness. In addition, this research integrates a Bayesian Network for uncertainty analysis on naval combat parameters, so that the model can accommodate dynamic changes in conditions during combat. The model development obtained involved a hyperbolic factor ‘k’ with tests in the range of 0.01 to 0.1. The ‘k’ value represents the range of the artillery weapon used. Tests were conducted with 3 scenarios, corresponding to the range of artillery weapons of surface warships. A battle between surface combatants in three international sea areas was modelled. Scenario 1 was tested at the maximum firing range of artillery weapons, scenario 2 was tested at medium range, and scenario 3 was tested at 40% of the range of artillery weapons. While the hit probability, kill probability, and material readiness variables are based on the assumed conditions of the maritime environment. The results of the analysis in scenario 1, the strength of the ships involved in the battle decreased slowly, this was due to the long firing range, causing a small hit probability and kill probability, but in scenarios 2 and 3, the decrease in ship strength was drastically reduced, because the distance between the two ships was closer together. From the model development results obtained and model testing obtained with this approach, the model not only estimates the outcome of the battle, but is also able to provide a more realistic picture related to the uncertainties that exist in military scenarios.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Lanchester Square Law, Naval Warfare, Bayesian Network.,
Subjects:	V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering
Divisions:	Faculty of Marine Technology (MARTECH) > Marine Engineering > 36001-(S3) PhD Theses
Depositing User:	Mr. Marsudiyana -
Date Deposited:	13 Mar 2025 07:45
Last Modified:	13 Mar 2025 07:45
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/118964

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