Pemodelan Regresi Data Panel Terhadap Harga Beras Di Kawasan Timur Indonesia

Pratiwi, Hana Ajeng (2025) Pemodelan Regresi Data Panel Terhadap Harga Beras Di Kawasan Timur Indonesia. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pola konsumsi masyarakat Indonesia terhadap beras yang masih sangat tinggi terus mengalami peningkatan di beberapa tahun terakhir. Di Indonesia Timur, kualitas pemenuhan dan keseimbangan harga pangan menjadi isu serius. Sebagian besar provinsi yang berada di wilayah Kawasan Timur Indonesia memiliki tingkat fluktuasi harga beras yang cukup tinggi setiap tahunnya. Permasalahan tingginya harga beras di kawasan tersebut menjadi semakin kompleks karena beberapa faktor yang berbeda dibandingkan dengan kawasan lainnya. Hal ini memicu ketimpangan dan kesenjangan harga beras di sebagian besar wilayah Kawasan Timur Indonesia. Untuk mencapai stabilitas dan keseimbangan harga pangan, diperlukan analisis terhadap faktor-faktor yang diduga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap stabilitas harga beras khususunya di Kawasan Timur Indonesia pada periode tahun 2018 hingga 2023 menggunakan analisis regresi data panel. Variabel yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah inflasi, produktifitas padi, PDRB, serta jumlah penduduk. Data diambil berdasarkan 10 Provinsi yang berada di Kawasan Timur Indonesia dari tahun 2018 hingga 2023, sehingga didapatkan 60 data untuk dianalisis. Hasil penelitian diperoleh bahwa harga beras di wilayah Kawasan Timur Indonesia tahun 2018 hingga 2023 menunjukkan perbedaan harga beras antar provinsi yang mencerminkan adanya disparitas harga yang signifikan antar provinsi di Kawasan Timur Indonesia. Provinsi Maluku Utara memiliki rata-rata harga beras tertinggi yang didukung dengan nilai produktivitas padi yang lebih rendah dibanding provinsi lainnya. Ketimpangan kesejahteraan juga terlihat, dengan Provinsi Papua Barat memiliki nilai PDRB tertinggi dan Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur terendah. Pemodelan menggunakan regresi data panel menghasilkan Fixed Effect Model (FEM) efek individu sebagai model yang terpilih dimana variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga beras di Kawasan Timur Indonesia adalah inflasi dan PDRB dengan kebaikan model sebesar 60.45% dan sisanya sebesar 39.55% dipengaruhi oleh variabel lain di luar model.
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The consumption pattern of the Indonesian people for rice, which is still very high, has continued to increase in recent years. In Eastern Indonesia, the quality of fulfillment and balance of food prices is a serious issue. Most of the provinces in the Eastern Region of Indonesia have a fairly high level of rice price fluctuations every year. The problem of high rice prices in the region is becoming more complex due to several different factors compared to other regions. This triggered inequality and disparity in rice prices in most areas of the Eastern Region of Indonesia. To achieve food price stability and balance, it is necessary to analyze factors that are suspected to have a significant influence on rice price stability, especially in the Eastern Region of Indonesia in the period from 2018 to 2023 using panel data regression analysis. The variables used in this study are inflation, rice productivity, GDP, and the number of population. The data was taken based on 10 provinces in the Eastern Region of Indonesia from 2018 to 2023, so that 60 data were obtained for analysis. The results of the study showed that rice prices in the Eastern Region of Indonesia from 2018 to 2023 showed differences in rice prices between provinces which reflected significant price disparities between provinces in the Eastern Region of Indonesia. North Maluku Province has the highest average rice price supported by a lower rice productivity value compared to other provinces. Inequality in welfare is also visible, with West Papua Province having the highest GDP value and East Nusa Tenggara Province having the lowest. Modelling using panel data regression produced a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) of individual effects as the selected model where the variables that had a significant influence on rice prices in the Eastern Region of Indonesia were inflation and GDP with a model goodness of 60.45% and the remaining 39.55% influenced by other variables outside the model.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Rice prices, Eastern Indonesia, Panel Data Regression, Harga beras, Kawasan Timur Indonesia, Regresi Data Panel
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis.
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Hana Ajeng Pratiwi
Date Deposited:	10 Jun 2025 03:34
Last Modified:	10 Jun 2025 03:34
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/119152

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