Pemodelan Regresi Data Panel untuk Mendeteksi Flypaper Effect pada Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur

Fransiska, Selfira Adinda (2025) Pemodelan Regresi Data Panel untuk Mendeteksi Flypaper Effect pada Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur. Diploma thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pemerintah pusat memberikan dana perimbangan atau bisa disebut juga dana transfer untuk mendukung pengembangan wilayah dalam kebijakan otonomi daerah, selain menggunakan Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD). Namun, terdapat fenomena yang dikenal sebagai flypaper effect, di mana bantuan dana tersebut tidak selalu mendorong optimalisasi potensi wilayah. Provinsi Kalimantan Timur, yang konsisten menerima dana perimbangan terbesar, perlu dievaluasi dalam pengelolaan dana ini. Kalimantan Timur, yang memiliki sumber daya alam melimpah, masih sangat bergantung pada sektor pertambangan, terutama batu bara, yang rentan terhadap fluktuasi harga komoditas global. Hal ini menyebabkan pendapatan daerah, terutama dari Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) dan dana transfer, mengalami fluktuasi yang signifikan Dengan mempertimbangkan variabel-variabel ini, analisis yang lebih komprehensif dapat dilakukan untuk memahami faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi Belanja Daerah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji apakah Kalimantan Timur mengalami flypaper effect dan mengukur pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD), Dana Bagi Hasil (DBH), Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU), dan Dana alokasi Khusus (DAK) terhadap Belanja Daerah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya kesenjangan kapasitas fiskal antar daerah, dengan Kabupaten Kutai Kartanegara memiliki kapasitas fiskal terbesar, sedangkan Kabupaten Mahakam Ulu yang paling terbatas. Pemodelan menggunakan regresi data panel menghasilkan Fixed Effect Model (FEM) efek waktu sebagai model yang terbaik dimana keempat variabel semuanya berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap Belanja Daerah, dengan kebaikan model yang didapatkan sebesar 96,47%. Hasil Fixed Effect Model (FEM) efek waktu dilihat dari nilai koefisien regresi menunjukkan bahwa ada fenomena flypaper effect pada Belanja Daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur, di mana transfer dari pemerintah pusat yakni Dana Alokasi Umum (DAU), dan Dana alokasi Khusus (DAK) lebih dominan dalam memengaruhi Belanja Daerah dibandingkan Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD).
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The central government provides balancing funds or also known as transfer funds to support regional development in the regional autonomy policy, in addition to using Regional Original Revenue (PAD). However, there is a phenomenon known as the flypaper effect, in which these funds do not always encourage the optimization of regional potential. East Kalimantan Province, which consistently receives the largest balancing funds, needs to be evaluated in its management of these funds. East Kalimantan, which has abundant natural resources, is still heavily dependent on the mining sector, especially coal, which is vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices. This causes local revenues, especially from own-source revenues (PAD) and transfer funds, to experience significant fluctuations. By considering these variables, a more comprehensive analysis can be conducted to understand the factors that influence local expenditure. This study aims to test whether East Kalimantan experiences the flypaper effect and measure the effect of Regional Original Revenue (PAD), Revenue Sharing Fund (DBH), General Allocation Fund (DAU), and Special Allocation Fund (DAK) on Regional Expenditure. The results show a gap in fiscal capacity between regions, with Kutai Kartanegara Regency having the largest fiscal capacity, while Mahakam Ulu Regency has the most limited. Modeling using panel data regression resulted in the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) time effect as the best model where the four variables all had a positive and significant effect on Regional Expenditure, with the goodness of the model obtained at 96.47%. The results of the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) time effect seen from the value of the regression coefficient show that there is a flypaper effect phenomenon on Regency / City Regional Expenditure in East Kalimantan Province, where transfers from the central government, namely the General Allocation Fund (DAU), and the Special Allocation Fund (DAK) are more dominant in influencing Regional Expenditure than Regional Original Revenue (PAD).

Item Type:	Thesis (Diploma)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	East Kalimantan, Flypaper Effect, Panel Data Regression, Regional Expenditure, Belanja Daerah, Flypaper Effect, Kalimantan Timur, Regresi Data Panel.
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Selfira Adinda Fransiska
Date Deposited:	20 Jun 2025 03:44
Last Modified:	20 Jun 2025 03:44
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/119223

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