Strategi Adaptasi Terhadap Dampak Perubahan Iklim Pada Transmisi Tenaga Listrik Di Wilayah Kerja PT PLN (Persero) UPT Padang

Putra, Rangga Bima (2025) Strategi Adaptasi Terhadap Dampak Perubahan Iklim Pada Transmisi Tenaga Listrik Di Wilayah Kerja PT PLN (Persero) UPT Padang. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Perubahan iklim global telah menjadi salah satu isu utama yang mempengaruhi berbagai sektor kehidupan, termasuk sektor energi. Perubahan pola curah hujan, suhu, dan kondisi cuaca ekstrem akibat perubahan iklim berpotensi meningkatkan risiko bencana alam, seperti tanah longsor. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak perubahan iklim terhadap kerentanan longsor pada sistem transmisi tenaga listrik di PT PLN (Persero) UPT Padang, menentukan potensi kerugian yang ditimbulkan, dan merumuskan strategi adaptasi yang efektif untuk memastikan keandalan pasokan listrik di masa mendatang. Metode yang digunakan adalah analisis Random Forest dengan menggunakan proyeksi presipitasi berdasarkan skenario Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1-2.6 dan SSP5-8.5 di tahun 2030 dan 2050 menggunakan tools ArcGIS Pro dan data faktor pengontrol tanah longsor seperti elevasi, kemiringan lereng, dan aspect yang didapatkan dari Badan Informasi Geospasial, data litologi dari Dinas ESDM Provinsi Sumatera Barat, data tutupan lahan tahun 2024 dari Kementerian Lingkungan dan Kehutanan, serta data curah hujan dari Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation With Station Data (CHIRPS). Selain itu, akan menganalisis potensi kerugian dengan menghitung potensi daya yang tidak tersalurkan (energy not served) dan menentukan strategi adaptasi perubahan iklim menggunakan Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) melalui wawancara serta pengisian kuesioner oleh pakar. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terjadi peningkatan tower dengan tingkat kerawanan longsor sangat tinggi pada skenario SSP5-8.5 tahun 2030 mencapai 1,39% dan tahun 2050 mencapai 1,29%, sedangkan pada skenario SSP1-2.6 tahun 2030 tower dengan tingkat kerawanan longsor sangat tinggi menurun hingga 0,86% dan pada tahun 2050 menurun hingga 1,15%. Potensi kerugian yang dihitung berdasarkan Energy Not Served menunjukkan peningkatan dari baseline pada skenario SSP1-2.6 sebesar Rp 12.974.832.000 pada tahun 2030 dan Rp 16.189.286.400 pada tahun 2050, sedangkan pada skenario SSP5-8.5 lebih tinggi hingga Rp 18.446.976.000 pada 2030 dan 2050. Analisis AHP terhadap delapan alternatif strategi adaptasi mengidentifikasi bahwa strategi relokasi tower merupakan prioritas utama (TPV = 0,212), diikuti oleh pembangunan retaining wall (0,172) dan penguatan pondasi (0,141). Strategi non-struktural seperti peringatan dini longsor, revegetasi, dan peningkatan kapasitas tim tanggap darurat berada pada urutan prioritas terbawah. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan adaptasi berbasis teknis-struktural dianggap paling efektif dalam mengurangi risiko langsung terhadap infrastruktur.
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Global climate change has become one of the main issues affecting various sectors of life, including the energy sector. Changes in rainfall patterns, temperature, and extreme weather conditions due to climate change have the potential to increase the risk of natural disasters, such as landslides. This study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on landslide vulnerability in the electric power transmission system operated by PT PLN (Persero) UPT Padang, estimate the potential economic losses, and formulate effective adaptation strategies to ensure future power supply reliability. The method used in this study is Random Forest analysis, incorporating precipitation projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios 1-2.6 and 5-8.5 for the years 2030 and 2050. The analysis was conducted using ArcGIS Pro and landslide-controlling factors such as elevation, slope, and aspect obtained from the Geospatial Information Agency (BIG), lithology data from the Energy and Mineral Resources Office of West Sumatra Province, 2024 land cover data from the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, and rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation With Station Data (CHIRPS). In addition, the study estimated economic losses by calculating the potential unserved energy (Energy Not Served) and developed climate change adaptation strategies using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), supported by expert interviews and questionnaire responses. The findings indicate based on the landslide susceptibility classification, the percentage of towers in the "very high vulnerability" category increased under the SSP5-8.5 scenario to 1.39% in 2030 and 1.29% in 2050, while it decreased under the SSP1-2.6 scenario to 0.86% in 2030 and 1.15% in 2050. The estimated economic losses based on the Energy Not Served increased from the baseline, reaching IDR 12,974,832,000 in 2030 and IDR 16,189,286,400 in 2050 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and up to IDR 18,446,976,000 in both 2030 and 2050 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. AHP analysis of eight adaptation strategy alternatives identified tower relocation as the top priority (TPV = 0.212), followed by the construction of retaining walls (0.172) and foundation reinforcement (0.141). Non-structural strategies such as landslide early warning systems, revegetation, and strengthening of emergency response team capacity ranked lowest in priority. These findings indicate that technically structural adaptation approaches are considered the most effective in reducing direct risks to infrastructure.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Perubahan Iklim, Longsor, Tower Transmisi Listrik, Frequency Ratio, Random Forest, AHP, Strategi Adaptasi, Kerentanan, Energy Not Served, Climate Change, Landslide, Power Transmission Tower, Frequency Ratio, Random Forest, AHP, Adaptation Strategy, Vulnerability, Energy Not Served
Subjects:	T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK201 Electric Power Transmission Q Science > QE Geology > QE599 Landslides. Rockslides
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Environmental Engineering > 25101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Rangga Bima Putra
Date Deposited:	21 Jul 2025 02:21
Last Modified:	21 Jul 2025 02:21
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/120169

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