Manajemen Persediaan Produk Gasoline RON 92 Dan Gasoil 0,05% Sulphur Dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo

Wibowo, Satriyo Hadi (2025) Manajemen Persediaan Produk Gasoline RON 92 Dan Gasoil 0,05% Sulphur Dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) merupakan komoditas strategis yang memainkan peran vital dalam mendukung keberlanjutan berbagai sektor perekonomian. PT XYZ, sebagai penyedia BBM di Timor Leste, menghadapi tantangan besar dalam menjaga kestabilan pasokan, terutama akibat fluktuasi permintaan, ketidakpastian Lead Time, dan keterbatasan kapasitas penyimpanan. Selama tahun 2023, perusahaan mengalami dua kejadian stockout dan dua potensi demurrage yang berdampak pada kerugian finansial dan hilangnya peluang pendapatan. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan simulasi Monte Carlo untuk memodelkan variabilitas permintaan harian dan Lead Time, serta membandingkan kinerja tiga metode pengendalian persediaan: Min-Max, (s,Q), dan (s,S). Ketiga metode diuji dalam tiga skenario permintaan, yaitu normal, naik 20%, dan turun 15%, dengan indikator evaluasi mencakup EOQ, ROP, Safety Stock, total biaya, dan tingkat pelayanan. Simulasi dilakukan selama 851 hari untuk produk Gasoline RON 92 dan Gasoil 0,05% Sulfur. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa metode (s,S) memberikan performa paling seimbang untuk sebagian besar skenario, dengan tingkat stockout terendah 0,00% dan tanpa demurrage untuk Gasoline RON 92 pada skenario permintaan turun. Namun, pada produk Gasoil 0,05% dalam skenario permintaan normal, stockout meningkat hingga 25,38%. Metode Min-Max berhasil menekan stockout di bawah 1% untuk semua skenario, namun menghasilkan biaya penyimpanan tinggi hingga Rp31,1 miliar. Sementara metode (s,Q) menunjukkan efisiensi biaya tertinggi (total biaya minimum Rp143,1 miliar) namun dengan risiko stockout mencapai 35,25% pada permintaan tinggi. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan penggunaan metode (s,S) sebagai kebijakan utama adaptif, dengan tetap mempertimbangkan kapasitas terbatas dan skenario permintaan dalam pengambilan keputusan logistik BBM di PT XYZ.
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Fuel oil (BBM) is a strategic commodity that plays a vital role in supporting various economic sectors. PT XYZ, as a BBM distributor in Timor Leste, faces significant challenges in ensuring stable and timely supply, particularly due to demand fluctuations, uncertainty in Lead Time, and limited storage capacity. In 2023, the company recorded two stockout incidents and two potential demurrage events, resulting in financial losses and missed sales opportunities. This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation approach to realistically model the variability in daily demand and Lead Time and evaluates the performance of three inventory control methods: Min-Max, (s,Q), and (s,S). Each method is tested across three demand scenarios—normal, +20% (high), and -15% (low)—with performance indicators including EOQ, ROP, safety stock, total cost, and service level. Simulations were conducted over 851 days for two key products: Gasoline RON 92 and Gasoil 0.05% Sulfur. The results show that the (s,S) method provides the most balanced performance across most scenarios. For Gasoline RON 92 under the low-demand scenario, it achieved a stockout rate of 0.00% and eliminated demurrage. However, under the normal demand scenario for Gasoil 0.05%, the stockout rate increased significantly to 25.38%. The Min-Max method maintained stockout below 1% across all scenarios but incurred high holding costs of up to IDR 31.1 billion. Meanwhile, the (s,Q) method offered the lowest total cost (IDR 143.1 billion) but suffered from high stockout risk, reaching 35.25% under high demand. The study recommends adopting the (s,S) method as the primary inventory policy, with adaptive adjustments based on demand scenarios and storage capacity limitations to enhance the BBM supply chain efficiency of PT XYZ.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Manajemen Persediaan, Simulasi Monte Carlo, Risiko Stockout, Biaya Demurrage, Inventory Management, Monte Carlo Simulation, Stockout Risk, Demurrage Costs
Subjects:	T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174 Technological forecasting T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.8 Productivity. Efficiency
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Satriyo Hadi Wibowo
Date Deposited:	21 Jul 2025 04:06
Last Modified:	21 Jul 2025 04:06
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/120217

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