Pemodelan Regresi Data Panel Terhadap Penerimaan Pajak Daerah Provinsi Di Indonesia

Rukhmana, Desi Andrianti (2025) Pemodelan Regresi Data Panel Terhadap Penerimaan Pajak Daerah Provinsi Di Indonesia. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Indonesia merupakan negara berkembang dengan dinamika ekonominya. Ketimpangan pertumbuhan penerimaan pajak antar provinsi terjadi di beberapa provinsi seperti Sulawesi Tenggara, NTB, Sumatera Selatan, Bengkulu, Kepulauan Bangka Belitung, Jambi, Maluku Utara, Sumatera Barat, Papua Barat, dan Papua mengalami penurunan. Ketimpangan ini menciptakan tantangan fiskal dalam kemampuan daerah untuk mengumpulkan pajak secara efektif. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan analisis terhadap faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap penerimaan pajak daerah provinsi tahun 2021-2023 menggunakan regresi data panel. Variabel yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD), Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB), kepadatan penduduk, persentase penduduk miskin, dan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pajak daerah provinsi tertinggi di Indonesia berada di Provinsi DKI Jakarta sedangkan nilai pajak daerah provinsi terendah berada di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat. Pemodelan menggunakan regresi data panel menghasilkan Random Effect Model (REM) sebagai model yang terpilih di mana terdapat tiga variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pajak daerah provinsi yaitu Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) yang berpengaruh positif, persentase penduduk miskin yang berpengaruh negatif, dan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berpengaruh positif. Kebaikan model yang diperoleh mencapai 65,952%, sementara sisanya sebesar 34,048% dijelaskan oleh variabel lain di luar model.
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Indonesia is a developing country with its economic dynamics. The inequality in tax revenue growth between provinces occurred in several provinces such as Southeast Sulawesi, NTB, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Bangka Belitung Islands, Jambi, North Maluku, West Sumatra, West Papua, and Papua decreased. This inequality creates fiscal challenges in the ability of regions to collect taxes effectively. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct an analysis of factors that have a significant effect on provincial tax revenues in 2021-2023 using panel data regression. The variables used in this study are Regional Original Income (PAD), Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP), population density, percentage of the poor, and economic growth rate. The results of the study show that the highest provincial regional tax in Indonesia is in DKI Jakarta Province while the lowest provincial regional tax value is in West Sulawesi Province. Modeling using panel data regression produced the Random Effect Model (REM) as the selected model where there are three variables that have a significant effect on provincial taxes, regional original revenue which has a positive effect, the percentage of poor people that has a negative effect, and the rate of economic growth that has a positive effect. The goodness of the model obtained reached 65.952%, while the remaining 34.048% was explained by other variables outside the model.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Fiscal Inequality, Panel Regression, Provincial Regional Taxes
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.3 Regression. Correlation. Logistic regression analysis.
Divisions:	Faculty of Vocational > 49501-Business Statistics
Depositing User:	Desi Andrianti Rukhmana
Date Deposited:	21 Jul 2025 04:55
Last Modified:	21 Jul 2025 04:55
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/120275

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