Analisa Dampak Early Retirement PLTU terhadap Sistem Kelistrikan Jawa Madura Bali (JAMALI)

Alvi Utari, Luzerina (2025) Analisa Dampak Early Retirement PLTU terhadap Sistem Kelistrikan Jawa Madura Bali (JAMALI). Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pensiun dini pembangkit listrik tenaga uap (PLTU) menjadi salah satu strategi dalam agenda transisi energi di Indonesia, khususnya pada sistem kelistrikan Jawa Madura Bali. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi dampak teknis dari pensiun dini PLTU terhadap kestabilan frekuensi dan susut transmisi selama periode transisi tahun 2025 hingga 2030 melalui pemodelan simulasi berbasis skenario pada software DIgSILENT PowerFactory. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pensiun PLTU secara bertahap menurunkan susut transmisi di sistem JAMALI, terutama jika pembangkit baru dibangun lebih dekat dengan pusat beban. Wilayah Jawa Timur mencatat penurunan persentase susut terbesar, dari 2.41% (2025) menjadi 1.97% (2030). Namun, analisis kestabilan frekuensi menunjukkan bahwa seluruh skenario pada periode tersebut menghasilkan nilai Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) yang melebihi ambang batas aman sebesar ±0.05 Hz/s, dengan nilai terendah tercatat pada tahun 2030 sebesar -0.1328 Hz/s dan nadir turun ke 49.10 Hz. Nilai RoCoF yang melampaui ambang batas ini menandakan potensi risiko terhadap stabilitas sistem, termasuk kemungkinan aktivasi dini Under Frequency Relay (UFR) dan kegagalan pemulihan frekuensi akibat minimnya kontribusi inersia sistem setelah pensiun dini PLTU secara berkelanjutan, pertumbuhan beban, dan meningkatnya proporsi pembangkit baru yang berbasis inverter. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa pensiun dini PLTU dapat mengurangi susut daya pada sistem transmisi, namun berisiko terhadap kestabilan frekuensi jika tidak disertai teknologi mitigasi seperti BESS dan grid forming inverter. Keputusan pensiun dini sebuah unit pembangkit sebaiknya tidak hanya mempertimbangkan usia operasional dan intensitas emisi, tetapi juga kontribusi terhadap nilai incremental loss, lokasi geografis unit dari pusat beban dan kontribusi unit terhadap keandalan sistem.
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The early retirement of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) has become one of the key strategies in Indonesia's energy transition agenda, particularly within the Java Madura Bali power system. This study aims to evaluate the technical impacts of CFPPs early retirement on frequency stability and transmission losses during the transition period from 2025 to 2030 through scenario-based simulation modeling using DIgSILENT PowerFactory. The power flow analysis indicates that retiring CFPPs progressively reduces transmission losses in the JAMALI system, especially when new power plants are built closer to load centers. East Java shows the largest loss reduction, from 2.41% in 2025 to 1.97% in 2030. However, the frequency stability analysis reveals that all scenarios during this period result in Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) values exceeding the safe threshold of ±0.05 Hz/s, with the most critical case occurring in 2030 at -0.1328 Hz/s and a frequency nadir of 49.10 Hz. RoCoF values beyond this threshold indicate potential risks to system stability, including premature activation of Under Frequency Relays (UFR) and failure of frequency recovery due to reduced system inertia following sustained CFPPs retirements, increasing load demand, and a growing share of inverter-based generation. This study concludes that while early CFPPs retirement can reduce transmission losses, it poses a risk to frequency stability unless accompanied by mitigation technologies such as Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and grid-forming inverters. Retirement decisions should consider not only operational age and emission intensity but also the unit’s contribution to incremental loss, geographical proximity to load centers, and overall system reliability

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Pensiun Dini PLTU, Stabilitas Sistem Kelistrikan Jawa-Madura-Bali, Susut Daya, Early Retirement of Coal-Fired Power Plants, Java Madura Bali Electrical Stability System, Power Loss
Subjects:	T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK1010 Electric power system stability. Electric filters, Passive. T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering > TK3226 Transients (Electricity). Electric power systems. Harmonics (Electric waves).
Divisions:	Faculty of Intelligent Electrical and Informatics Technology (ELECTICS) > Electrical Engineering > 20101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Luzerina Alvi Utari
Date Deposited:	25 Jul 2025 07:55
Last Modified:	25 Jul 2025 07:55
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/121499

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