Pemodelan Durasi Pencarian Kerja Di Jawa Barat Menggunakan Model Subdistribution Hazard Frailty Dengan Metode Hierarchical Likelihood

Pasya, Firzan Aulia (2025) Pemodelan Durasi Pencarian Kerja Di Jawa Barat Menggunakan Model Subdistribution Hazard Frailty Dengan Metode Hierarchical Likelihood. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Pengangguran di Indonesia, khususnya di Jawa Barat, menjadi tantangan besar dengan tingkat pengangguran terbuka tertinggi dibanding provinsi lainnya. Tingkat pengangguran terbuka di Jawa Barat mencapai angka 6,75% pada Agustus 2024 dengan dominasi pekerja informal sebesar 54,39%. Kejadian seseorang mendapatkan pekerjaan di sektor formal dan informal dapat dipertimbangkan menjadi kejadian yang saling bersaing. Klasterisasi kabupaten/kota domisili tempat tinggal seseorang yang menganggur dan mencari pekerjaan diduga memiliki heterogenitas akibat adanya kovariat tak teramati yang memungkinkan perbedaan peluang dalam mendapatkan pekerjaan. Tingginya tingkat pengangguran terbuka di Jawa Barat menunjukkan diperlukannya analisis survival pada durasi pencarian kerja di Jawa Barat untuk mengetahui berapa lama seseorang yang menganggur mendapatkan pekerjaan di sektor formal dan informal dengan mempertimbangkan klasterisasi berdasarkan kabupaten/kota. Model yang digunakan adalah model subdistribution hazard (Fine-Gray) untuk mengatasi data dengan competing event, seperti mendapatkan pekerjaan di sektor formal atau informal. Penambahan efek acak frailty diperlukan agar dapat memberikan informasi tambahan untuk mengukur heterogenitas atau variasi risiko antar klaster kabupaten/kota. Estimasi parameter menggunakan hierarchical likelihood yang memungkinkan untuk menggabungkan efek tetap (kovariat) dan efek acak (frailty) ke fungsi likelihood yang diperluas. Dengan menggunakan data durasi pencarian kerja dari Survei Ketenagakerjaan Nasional (SAKERNAS) Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) pada Agustus 2024, variabel independen yang digunakan mencakup variabel usia, jenis kelamin, status pernikahan, tingkat pendidikan terakhir ditamatkan, pelatihan, dan disabilitas, serta efek acak pada klaster berdasarkan 27 Kabupaten/Kota yang ada di Jawa Barat. Pada model frailty, baseline hazard tertinggi pada awal periode pencarian kerja dan menurun seiring waktu, dengan pola yang sedikit berbeda antara sektor formal dan informal. Estimasi varians frailty menunjukkan adanya ketakmerataan pencarian kerja antar kabupaten/kota, dengan beberapa daerah menunjukkan log-frailties positif yang mengindikasikan durasi lebih cepat, dan sebaliknya. Model dengan frailty menghasilkan nilai rAIC dan cAIC yang lebih rendah dibandingkan model Fine-Gray biasa, menandakan peningkatan kecocokan model. Perbandingan kedua model menunjukkan bahwa mempertimbangkan frailty lebih mampu menangkap heterogenitas tersembunyi di tingkat wilayah. Temuan penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi pertimbangan dalam perumusan kebijakan ketenagakerjaan berbasis wilayah, khususnya dalam penyusunan program pelatihan dan intervensi untuk mempercepat transisi penduduk ke pasar kerja, serta mendorong pemerataan kesempatan kerja lintas daerah di Jawa Barat.
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Unemployment in Indonesia, particularly in West Java, remains a significant challenge, with the highest open unemployment rate compared to other provinces. The open unemployment rate in West Java reached 6.75% in August 2024, with informal workers dominating at 54.39%. The event of an individual obtaining employment in either the formal or informal sector can be considered competing events. Clustering of districts/cities based on the residence of unemployed individuals seeking jobs is suspected to have heterogeneity due to unobserved covariates, which may lead to differences in job acquisition opportunities. The high open unemployment rate in West Java indicates the need for a survival analysis of job search duration to determine how long unemployed individuals take to find employment in either the formal or informal sector while considering clustering based on districts/cities. The model used is the subdistribution hazard model (Fine-Gray) to address competing events, such as obtaining a job in the formal or informal sector. The addition of a frailty random effect is necessary to provide additional information to measure heterogeneity or variation in risk among district/city clusters. Parameter estimation is performed using hierarchical likelihood, which allows for the integration of fixed effects (covariates) and random effects (frailty) into an extended likelihood function. Using job search duration data from the National Labor Force Survey (SAKERNAS) conducted by the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) in August 2024, the independent variables include age, gender, marital status, highest educational attainment, training, and disability, as well as random effects based on the 27 districts/cities in West Java. The findings of this study are expected to provide the government with valuable information to understand the factors influencing an individual's likelihood of obtaining employment in either the formal or informal sector in West Java, while considering inter-district/city heterogeneity in formulating policies related to unemployment and labor issues. In the frailty model, the baseline hazard is highest at the start of the job search period and decreases over time, with slightly different patterns across sectors. The estimated frailty variance reveals substantial heterogeneity across districts, with some regions having positive random effects indicating faster employment, and others showing the opposite. The frailty model produces lower rAIC and cAIC values compared to the standard Fine-Gray model, indicating better model fit. The comparison highlights that including frailty more effectively captures unobserved regional heterogeneity. These findings are expected to inform region-specific employment policy-making, particularly in designing training programs and interventions to accelerate labor market entry and promote equitable employment opportunities across West Java.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Durasi Pencarian Kerja, Frailty, Hierarchical Likelihood, Kejadian Bersaing, Subdistribution Hazard, Competing Risks, Frailty, Hierarchical Likelihood, Job Search Duration, Subdistribution Hazard
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry)
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics, Computation, and Data Science > Actuaria > 94203-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Firzan Aulia Pasya
Date Deposited:	30 Jul 2025 09:34
Last Modified:	30 Jul 2025 09:34
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/121996

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