Sensitivity Analysis of Residential Investment in a Housing Cluster Located in West Surabaya

Nabilah, Nur Azizah (2025) Sensitivity Analysis of Residential Investment in a Housing Cluster Located in West Surabaya. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis sensitivitas investasi pada proyek perumahan GP, khususnya di Cluster X, Surabaya. Proyek ini dikembangkan oleh PT.P dan mencakup luas lahan sekitar 7 hektar. Dengan meningkatnya kepadatan penduduk di Surabaya yang mendorong tingginya permintaan akan hunian, studi ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi variabel-variabel kunci yang memengaruhi batas penerimaan investasi serta menilai potensi risiko yang timbul akibat persaingan pasar. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan metode penilaian investasi seperti Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), dan Payback Period (PP), serta analisis sensitivitas untuk mengukur dampak perubahan terhadap hasil investasi. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa proyek menghasilkan NPV positif sebesar Rp40,1 miliar, IRR sebesar 13,88%, dan Payback Period selama 6 tahun. Analisis sensitivitas dilakukan untuk menentukan variabel paling berpengaruh terhadap penerimaan investasi. Variabel yang diuji meliputi biaya lahan, biaya konstruksi, harga jual unit rumah, dan tingkat penjualan rumah. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa proyek tetap layak secara finansial selama biaya lahan tidak meningkat lebih dari 5,72%, biaya konstruksi tidak melebihi 12,68%, harga jual tidak turun lebih dari 3,48%, dan tingkat penjualan rumah tidak turun di bawah 3,20%. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tingkat penjualan unit merupakan variabel yang paling sensitif dalam memengaruhi kelayakan investasi
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This research analyzes the investment sensitivity of the GP residential project, specifically in the cluster X, Surabaya. The project is developed by PT.P and covers a land area of approximately 7 hectares. With the increasing population density in Surabaya driving higher demand for housing, this study aims to identify key variables that influence investment acceptance limits and assess potential risks arising from market competition. The analysis uses capital budgeting methods such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PP) to evaluate investment decisions, along with sensitivity analysis to measure the impact of changes on investment outcomes. The results show that the project yields a positive NPV of Rp40.1 billion, an IRR of 13.88%, and a Payback Period of 6 years. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most influential variables affecting investment acceptance. The variables tested include land cost, construction cost, housing unit selling prices, and housing sales rate. The analysis reveals that the project remains financially acceptable as long as land costs do not increase beyond 5.72%, construction costs do not exceed 12.68%, selling prices do not decrease by more than 3.48%, and the housing sales rate does not fall below 3.20%. The results indicate that the sales rate unit is the most sensitive variable influencing investment acceptance.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Sensitivity Analysis, Investment Decision, Capital Budgeting, Housing Market, Analisis Sensitivitas, Keputusan Investasi, Penganggaran Modal, Pasar Perumahan.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance H Social Sciences > HG Finance > HG4529 Investment analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Civil, Planning, and Geo Engineering (CIVPLAN) > Civil Engineering > 22201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	NUR AZIZAH NABILAH
Date Deposited:	29 Jul 2025 02:30
Last Modified:	29 Jul 2025 02:30
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/122512

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