Hidayat, Fahdia Safitri (2025) Analisis Seismotektonik untuk Menentukan Perulangan Gempa Bumi Mw>6 di Pulau Sumatera Menggunakan Persamaan Gutenberg-Richter. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Pulau Sumatera merupakan wilayah di Indonesia yang rentan terhadap gempa bumi akibat adanya zona subduksi megathrust di sepanjang lempeng Indo-Australia dan Eurasia. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk memperkirakan kemungkinan terjadinya gempa bumi dengan magnitudo lebih dari 6 (Mw > 6) di wilayah tersebut. Data gempa yang dianalisis berasal dari katalog International Seismological Centre (ISC) untuk periode 1950–2024. Data gempa yang diperoleh kemudian diolah menggunakan pendekatan statistik seismotektonik melalui persamaan Gutenberg–Richter untuk menghitung parameter a dan b, serta melalui distribusi Weibull dan Poisson untuk memperkirakan peluang terjadinya gempa di masa mendatang. Sebelum dianalisis, data dikonversi ke satuan magnitudo momen (Mw) dan disaring melalui proses declustering guna memisahkan gempa utama dari gempa susulan. Estimasi parameter dilakukan menggunakan metode Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), dan evaluasi kecocokan model dilakukan menggunakan log-likelihood, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), dan uji Kolmogorov–Smirnov. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan variasi spasial nilai b sebagai cerminan kondisi tektonik regional, serta memberikan gambaran probabilitas kejadian gempa besar di masa depan. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat mendukung upaya mitigasi bencana gempa bumi di kawasan Sumatera secara lebih terarah dan berbasis data.
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Sumatra Island is one of the most earthquake-prone regions in Indonesia due to the presence of the megathrust subduction zone along the Indo-Australian and Eurasian plate boundary. This study was conducted to estimate the likelihood of earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6 (Mw > 6) occurring in the region. The seismic data analyzed were obtained from the International Seismological Centre (ISC) catalog, covering the period from 1950 to 2024. The data were processed using statistical seismotectonic approaches, including the Gutenberg–Richter law to calculate the an and b parameters, as well as the Weibull and Poisson distributions to estimate the probability of future earthquake occurrences. Prior to analysis, the data were converted to moment magnitude scale (Mw) and underwent a declustering process to separate mainshocks from aftershocks. Parameter estimation was carried out using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method, while model fit was evaluated using log-likelihood, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The results reveal spatial variations in b-values, which reflect regional tectonic conditions, and provide insights into the probabilities of future large-magnitude earthquakes. This research is expected to contribute to more data-driven and targeted earthquake disaster mitigation efforts in the Sumatra region.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Gutenberg-Richter, Weibull, Poisson, Sumatera, probabilitas gempa, b-value. Gutenberg-Richter, Weibull, Poisson, Sumatra, earthquake probability, b-value. |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA273.6 Weibull distribution. Logistic distribution. Q Science > QE Geology > QE538.8 Earthquakes. Seismology |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Physics > 45201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Fahdia Safitri Hidayat |
| Date Deposited: | 29 Jul 2025 08:26 |
| Last Modified: | 29 Jul 2025 08:26 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/122675 |
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