Analisis Probabilitas Kegagalan Dan Penentuan Skenario Mitigasi Sebagai Upaya Meningkatkan Performa Peralatan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Gas Dan Uap

Syahbania, Sastya Adzani (2025) Analisis Probabilitas Kegagalan Dan Penentuan Skenario Mitigasi Sebagai Upaya Meningkatkan Performa Peralatan Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Gas Dan Uap. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Performansi pembangkit listrik merupakan faktor penting dalam keberlangsungan produksi, salah satunya diukur melalui Equivalent Availability Factor (EAF) yang mencerminkan tingkat ketersediaan dan keandalan peralatan pembangkit dalam beroperasi sesuai kapasitas terpasang. Pada tahun 2023, PLTGU Blok 1 Unit Wilayah A PT X mencatat EAF terendah sebesar 84,95%, yang dipengaruhi oleh tingginya frekuensi kegagalan pada peralatan kritis dan berdampak pada terganggunya proses produksi. Mengingat bahwa risiko teknis dalam sistem pembangkitan berkaitan erat dengan probabilitas kegagalan dan dampaknya terhadap operasi, maka peninjauan manajemen risiko perlu dilakukan secara sistematis dengan menganalisis probabilitas kegagalan dan mengembangkan skenario mitigasi yang tepat untuk mengurangi dampak kegagalan peralatan. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan identifikasi peralatan kritis dengan analisis Pareto, memodelkannya menggunakan Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), dan menganalisis keandalan berdasarkan data Time to Failure (TTF) dan Time to Repair (TTR). Probabilitas kegagalan digunakan sebagai initiating event dalam Event Tree Analysis (ETA) untuk menyusun skenario mitigasi, termasuk evaluasi jalur mitigasi dan konsekuensinya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan tujuh peralatan kritis, yaitu GT 1.1 Compressor, ST 1.0 Condenser, HRSG 1.2 Exhaust Damper, GT 1.3 Turbin, ST 1.0 LP Boiler Feed Pump, GT 1.2 Rotor Cooling Air, dan HRSG 1.3 Superheater, dengan probabilitas kegagalan masing-masing sebesar 18%, 37,6%, 36,8%, 30%, 39,8%, 36,2%, dan 32,2%. ETA menghasilkan empat jalur skenario pada GT 1.2 Rotor Cooling Air, delapan jalur skenario pada GT 1.1 Compressor dan ST 1.0 Condenser, serta enam belas jalur skenario pada HRSG 1.2 Exhaust Damper, GT 1.3 Turbin, ST 1.0 LP Boiler Feed Pump, dan HRSG 1.3 Superheater. Rekomendasi jalur mitigasi yang disusun terbukti dapat menurunkan tingkat risiko hingga kategori “Rendah” pada ketujuh peralatan kritis PLTGU Blok 1 PT X.
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Power plant performance is an important factor in production sustainability, one of which is measured through the Equivalent Availability Factor (EAF) which reflects the level of availability and reliability of generating equipment in operating according to installed capacity. In 2023, PLTGU Block 1 Unit Region A PT X recorded the lowest EAF of 84.95%, which was influenced by the high frequency of failures in critical equipment and had an impact on the disruption of the production process. Given that technical risks in the generation system are closely related to the probability of failure and its impact on operations, it is necessary to systematically review risk management by analyzing the probability of failure and developing appropriate mitigation scenarios to reduce the impact of equipment failure. In this study, critical equipment was identified using Pareto analysis, modeled using Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), and analyzed reliability based on Time to Failure (TTF) and Time to Repair (TTR) data. Failure probability is used as an initiating event in Event Tree Analysis (ETA) to develop mitigation scenarios, including evaluation of mitigation paths and their consequences. The results showed seven critical pieces of equipment, namely GT 1.1 Compressor, ST 1.0 Condenser, HRSG 1.2 Exhaust Damper, GT 1.3 Turbine, ST 1.0 LP Boiler Feed Pump, GT 1.2 Rotor Cooling Air, and HRSG 1.3 Superheater, with failure probabilities of 18%, 37.6%, 36.8%, 30%, 39.8%, 36.2%, and 32.2%, respectively. ETA generated four scenario paths at GT 1.2 Rotor Cooling Air, eight scenario paths at GT 1.1 Compressor and ST 1.0 Condenser, and sixteen scenario paths at HRSG 1.2 Exhaust Damper, GT 1.3 Turbine, ST 1.0 LP Boiler Feed Pump, and HRSG 1.3 Superheater. The mitigation pathway recommendations are proven to reduce the risk level to the “Low” category on the seven critical equipment of PLTGU Block 1 PT X.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Failure Probability, Manajemen Risiko, Mitigation Scenario, Probabilitas Kegagalan, Risk Management, Skenario Mitigasi.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) > TA169 Reliability (Engineering)
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Sastya Adzani Syahbania
Date Deposited:	30 Jul 2025 01:43
Last Modified:	30 Jul 2025 01:43
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/122695

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