Peramalan Rata Rata Harga Ikan Tuna, Cakalang, Dan Tongkol (TCT) Di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Model Vector Autoregressive (VAR)

Rodjaizzati, Ikmal (2025) Peramalan Rata Rata Harga Ikan Tuna, Cakalang, Dan Tongkol (TCT) Di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Model Vector Autoregressive (VAR). Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Indonesia menjadi salah satu produsen serta primadonas perikanan dunia untuk komoditas yang bernilai ekonomi tinggi yakni Tuna, Cakalang, dan Tongkol (TCT). Pada penelitian ini data yang digunakan adalah data time series rata-rata harga ikan Tuna, Cakalang, dan Tongkol (TCT) di Jawa Timur sejak Januari 2018 hingga April 2025, alasan dipilihnya ketiga jenis ikan tersebut karena ketiganya memiliki nilai korelasi yang tinggi antar variabelnya. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan peramalan rata-rata harga menggunakan model VAR terhadap ikan Tuna, Cakalang, dan Tongkol (TCT) di Jawa Timur yang merupakan provinsi dengan penyumbang ekspor perikanan tertinggi dengan komoditas utama yaitu TCT. Peramalan harga ikan sangat diperlukan dalam upaya memberikan gambaran mengenai kebijakan pemerintah dalam penentuan harga ikan untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan rakyat terutama bagi kepentingan kehidupan nelayan. Model VAR dipilih karena salah satu model peramalan multivariat dengan variabel pengamatan yang saling berhubungan. Didapatkan hasil penelitian bahwa model VAR(2) merupakan model yang sangat baik dalam meramalkan rata-rata harga ikan TCT di Jawa Timur dengan nilai AIC terkecil yaitu 33,571303 serta nilai MAPE yang relatif kecil yakni sebesar 0,725%. Dengan demikian, model VAR(2) merupakan model yang sangat baik untuk meramalkan rata-rata harga ikan TCT dimasa mendatang.
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Indonesia is one of the world’s leading producers and key players in the fisheries sector, particularly for high economic value commodities such as Tuna, Skipjack, and Cob. This study utilizes time series data on the average prices of Tuna, Skipjack, and Cob in East Java from January 2018 to April 2025. These three fish types were selected due to the high correlation among their respective price variables. The study aims to forecast the average prices of TCT in East Java Indonesia’s top fishery export contributing province with TCT as its main commodity using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Fish price forecasting is crucial to provide insight into government policy related to fish pricing, ultimately supporting public welfare, especially that of fishermen. The VAR model was chosen as it is a multivariate forecasting method that accounts for interdependencies among observed variables. The results indicate that the VAR(2) model is highly effective in forecasting the average prices of TCT in East Java, with the lowest AIC value of 33,571303 and a relatively low MAPE of 0.725%. Therefore, the VAR(2) model is considered highly suitable for forecasting future average prices of TCT.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Harga Ikan, Model VAR, TCT Fish Prices, VAR Models, TCT
Subjects:	Q Science Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA276 Mathematical statistics. Time-series analysis. Failure time data analysis. Survival analysis (Biometry)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Mathematics > 44201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Ikmal Rodjaizzati
Date Deposited:	29 Jul 2025 06:33
Last Modified:	29 Jul 2025 06:33
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/122752

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