Analisis Studi Kelayakan Investasi PLTS On-Grid Kapasitas 20 MWP Di Pabrik Semen PT Semen Baturaja

Kusuma, Rafli Januar Ardian (2025) Analisis Studi Kelayakan Investasi PLTS On-Grid Kapasitas 20 MWP Di Pabrik Semen PT Semen Baturaja. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini membahas perencanaan dan analisis kelayakan ekonomi sistem Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Surya (PLTS) tipe On-grid di Pabrik PT Semen Baturaja. Simulasi perencanaan dilakukan menggunakan perangkat lunak HelioScope dan perhitungan manual untuk menentukan kapasitas terpasang yang optimal sesuai kondisi eksisting atap dan lahan. Sistem dirancang menggunakan 37.044-unit panel surya JA Solar JAM7S30-540/MR/1500V berkapasitas 540 Wp, dengan kombinasi inverter tipe SUN2000-30KTL, SUN2000-100KTL, dan SUN2000-215KTL. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan potensi produksi energi tahunan sebesar 27.006,72 MWh, sementara perhitungan manual menghasilkan estimasi sebesar 30.285,74 MWh. Investasi awal sistem PLTS berkapasitas 20,003 MWp ini diperkirakan sebesar Rp 225.297.724.809,58, dengan nilai Life Cycle Cost (LCC) sebesar Rp 289.331.676.852 dan Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) sebesar Rp 382,14/kWh. Sistem memiliki performance ratio (PR) 85% dan diproyeksikan memiliki waktu pengembalian investasi (payback period) selama 8 tahun. Hasil analisis kelayakan ekonomi menunjukkan proyek ini layak secara finansial dengan nilai Net Present Value (NPV) sebesar Rp 70.213.423.318,95, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sebesar 12,55%, Payback Period selama 14 tahun dan Profitability Index (PI) sebesar 1,31. Namun, analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa pada kondisi nilai tukar naik hingga 140%, IRR turun menjadi 8,15%, NPV menjadi negatif Rp -22.005.607.147, dan PI sebesar 0,930 dengan payback period selama 26 tahun. Demikian pula, saat produksi energi turun di bawah 80%, IRR menjadi 8,51%, NPV sebesar Rp -9.066.429.286, PI sebesar 0,960, dan payback period juga mencapai 26 tahun. Dari hasil skenario pesimis didapat bahwa pengembalian modal investasi terjadi pada tahun ke-22 dan total arus kas komulatif sebesar Rp 3.360.066.933,60. Sedangkan untuk skenario optimis pengembalian investasi akan terjadi pada tahun ke-10 dengan arus kas kumulatif sebesar Rp 3.477.173.267. Oleh karena itu, meskipun proyek ini layak dalam kondisi dasar, investor perlu memperhatikan risiko fluktuasi nilai tukar dan penurunan produksi dengan menerapkan strategi operasi dan pemeliharaan (operation & maintenance) yang tepat guna menjaga keberlanjutan kelayakan proyek.
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This study discusses the planning and economic feasibility analysis of an On-grid Solar Power Plant (PLTS) system at the PT Semen Baturaja factory. The system planning was carried out using HelioScope software and manual calculations to determine the optimal installed capacity based on the existing roof and land conditions. The system is designed to utilize 37,044 units of JA Solar JAM7S30-540/MR/1500V solar panels with a capacity of 540 Wp, combined with inverters of types SUN2000-30KTL, SUN2000-100KTL, and SUN2000-215KTL. The simulation results indicate a potential annual energy production of 27,006.72 MWh, while manual calculations estimate an output of 30,285.74 MWh. The initial investment for the 20.003 MWp PLTS system is estimated at IDR 225,297,724,809.58, with a Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of IDR 289,331,676,852 and a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of IDR 382.14/kWh. The system has a performance ratio (PR) of 85% and is projected to achieve a payback period of 8 years. The economic feasibility analysis shows that the project is financially viable under the base case scenario, with a Net Present Value (NPV) of IDR 70,213,423,318.95, an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 12.55%, a Payback Period of 14 years, and a Profitability Index (PI) of 1.31. However, the sensitivity analysis reveals that under a scenario where the exchange rate increases to 140%, the IRR drops to 8.15%, the NPV becomes negative at IDR 22,005,607,147, and the PI decreases to 0.930 with a payback period of 26 years. Similarly, if energy production falls below 80%, the IRR decreases to 8.51%, NPV to IDR -9,066,429,286, PI to 0.960, and the payback period remains at 26 years. Under the pessimistic scenario, investment payback is achieved in the 22nd year with a cumulative cash flow of IDR 3,360,066,933.60. In contrast, under the optimistic scenario, payback occurs in the 10th year with a cumulative cash flow of IDR 3,477,173,267. Therefore, although the project is financially feasible under the base case scenario, investors should consider the risks of exchange rate fluctuations and decreased energy production. Implementing effective operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies is essential to ensure the long-term financial viability of the project.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	PLTS, Investasi, Studi Kelayakan Ekonomi, Solar Power Plant, Investment, Economic Feasibility Analysis
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.24 Feasibility studies. Feasibility appraisals
Divisions:	Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT)
Depositing User:	Rafli Januar Ardian Kusuma
Date Deposited:	30 Jul 2025 15:29
Last Modified:	30 Jul 2025 15:29
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/123277

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