Nisa, Isna Khoirun (2025) Analisis Probabilitas dalam Action Priority (AP) pada Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) untuk Industri Manufaktur Rokok Sigaret Kretek Tangan PT XYZ dengan Simulasi Monte Carlo. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Industri manufaktur rokok sigaret kretek tangan beroperasi dalam lingkungan produksi yang kompleks dan padat karya, dengan ekspektasi tinggi terhadap konsistensi mutu, efisiensi proses, dan pengendalian risiko yang ketat. Namun, tantangan besar muncul ketika metode identifikasi dan mitigasi risiko yang digunakan masih bersifat konvensional dan tidak mampu menangkap dinamika ketidakpastian di lapangan. Pendekatan Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) yang masih mengandalkan Risk Priority Number (RPN) terbukti memiliki keterbatasan signifikan karena menyamaratakan bobot Severity (S), Occurrence (O), dan Detection (D), tanpa mempertimbangkan variabilitas dan subjektivitas yang inheren dalam penilaian risiko. Hal ini berpotensi menimbulkan kesalahan dalam pemeringkatan risiko dan menghambat efektivitas mitigasi. Penelitian inimenawarkan pendekatan inovatif dengan mengintegrasikan Simulasi Monte Carlo ke dalam FMEA untuk menghasilkan Action Priority (AP) berbasis distribusi probabilitas. Langkah-langkah penelitian mencakup pengumpulan data melalui observasi dan dokumentasi operasional, penilaian parameter risiko oleh tim ahli, pembentukan distribusi nilai S, O, dan D, serta pelaksanaan 1000 iterasi simulasi menggunakan perangkat lunak Crystal Ball. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dari 14 FMEA ID yang dianalisis, seluruhnya memiliki probabilitas AP High sebesar 0%. Namun, FMEA ID 34 dan 33 memiliki probabilitas sangat tinggi di kategori Medium (masing-masing 100% dan 68,76%),menandakan urgensi mitigasi yang konsisten meskipun tidak tergolong ekstrem. Perbandingan antara pendekatan RPN dan AP menunjukkan adanya perbedaan signifikan dalam pemeringkatan risiko. Temuan ini berkontribusi penting dalam peningkatan efisiensi operasional, kestabilan mutu produk, dan penguatan sistem manajemen risiko di industri manufaktur rokok sigaret kretek tangan. Dalam jangka panjang, pendekatan ini diharapkan menjadi fondasi baru bagi penerapan pengelolaan risiko berbasis simulasi dalam sektor manufaktur padat karya.
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The hand-rolled kretek cigarette manufacturing industry operates in a complex, labor-intensive production environment with high expectations for quality consistency, process efficiency, and strict risk control. However, significant challenges arise when conventional risk identification and mitigation methods are still used, as they fail to capture the dynamic uncertainties present on the production floor. The conventional Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), which relies on the Risk Priority Number (RPN), has shown considerable limitations due to its equal weighting of Severity (S), Occurrence (O), and Detection (D), without accounting for the inherent variability and subjectivity in risk assessment. This can lead to misprioritization of risks and reduced effectiveness
of mitigation strategies. This study proposes an innovative approach by integrating Monte Carlo Simulation into FMEA to generate a probabilistic Action Priority (AP). The research involves data collection through operational observations and documentation, expert assessment of risk parameters,
formation of S, O, and D distributions, and execution of 1000 simulation iterations using Crystal Ball software. The results show that none of the 14 analyzed FMEA IDs had a significant probability in the AP High category. However, FMEA IDs 34 and 33 exhibited very high probabilities in the
Medium category (100% and 68.76%, respectively), indicating consistent yet moderate risk urgency. The comparison between RPN and AP approaches revealed significant differences in risk rankings. These findings contribute to improving operational efficiency, product quality stability, and
strengthening risk management systems in hand-rolled kretek cigarette manufacturing. In the long term, this approach is expected to serve as a new foundation for simulation-based risk management in labor-intensive manufacturing sectors.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Other) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Simulasi Monte Carlo, Action Priority (AP), Manajemen Risiko, Penilaian Risiko, Manufaktur Rokok Sigaret Kretek Tangan |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA274.2 Stochastic analysis T Technology > T Technology (General) > T174.5 Technology--Risk assessment. T Technology > T Technology (General) > T57.62 Simulation |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Industrial Technology > Industrial Engineering > 26201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis |
| Depositing User: | Isna Khoirun Nisa |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Jul 2025 01:19 |
| Last Modified: | 30 Jul 2025 01:27 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/123972 |
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