Prastawa, Krisna Hanjar (2025) Evaluasi Kelayakan Proyek Tambang Batubara di PT XYZ Menggunakan Metode Discounted Cash Flow dan Real Option Valuation. Masters thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Investasi di sektor pertambangan memiliki tingkat risiko dan ketidakpastian yang tinggi, terutama akibat volatilitas harga komoditas dan kondisi operasional yang dinamis. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi kelayakan proyek tambang batubara terbuka milik PT XYZ, yang sebelumnya telah beroperasi namun telah lama ditinggalkan. Analisis dilakukan untuk menentukan apakah proyek layak untuk diaktifkan kembali secara ekonomis. Metode yang digunakan meliputi Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) dan Real Option Valuation (ROV) dengan metode binomial lattice.
Hasil analisis DCF menunjukkan bahwa proyek layak secara finansial, ditunjukkan oleh nilai Net Present Value (NPV) sebesar USD 21.468.057, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) sebesar 22%, serta Payback Period (PBP) selama 4.38 tahun. Analisis sensitivitas mengidentifikasi bahwa harga jual batubara merupakan parameter yang paling memengaruhi nilai NPV. Sementara itu, dengan pendekatan ROV diperoleh option value sebesar USD 35.985.838 dan option premium sebesar USD 14.517.780. Dari perhitungan KOV, menunjukkan bahwa nilai option to defer paling optimal terjadi di tahun kedua, dengan estimasi produksi mulai tahun 2027.
Dengan demikian, hasil analisis kelayakan ekonomi secara keseluruhan menunjukkan bahwa proyek pertambangan batubara PT XYZ layak untuk direalisasikan. Kombinasi penggunaan kedua pendekatan ini (DCF dan ROV) dapat memberikan gambaran yang lebih komprehensif dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi pada proyek dengan tingkat ketidakpastian yang tinggi.
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Investment in the mining sector carries a high level of risk and uncertainty, primarily due to commodity price volatility and dynamic operational conditions. This study aims to evaluate the feasibility of reopening PT XYZ’s open-pit coal mining project, which had previously been in operation but has long been abandoned. The analysis is conducted to determine whether the project is economically viable to be reactivated. The methods used include Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and Real Option Valuation (ROV) using the binomial lattice methods.
The DCF analysis indicates that the project is financially feasible, as evidenced by a Net Present Value (NPV) of USD 21.468.057, an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 22%, and a Payback Period (PBP) of 4.38 years. Sensitivity analysis identifies the coal selling price as the most influential parameter affecting NPV. Meanwhile, the ROV approach yields an option value of USD 35.985.838 and an option premium of USD 14.517.780. The Real Option Valuation analysis shows that the most optimal value of the option to defer occurs in the second year, with production estimated to begin in 2027.
Therefore, the overall results of the economic feasibility analysis indicate that the PT XYZ coal mining project is viable for implementation. The combination of both approaches (DCF and ROV) provides a more comprehensive perspective in making investment decisions for projects with high levels of uncertainty.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Masters) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | pertambangan batubara, evaluasi proyek, discounted cash flow, real option valuation, coal mining, project evaluation, discounted cash flow, real option valuation. |
| Subjects: | H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD30.24 Feasibility studies. Feasibility appraisals |
| Divisions: | Interdisciplinary School of Management and Technology (SIMT) > 61101-Master of Technology Management (MMT) |
| Depositing User: | Krisna Hanjar Prastawa |
| Date Deposited: | 30 Jul 2025 10:18 |
| Last Modified: | 30 Jul 2025 10:18 |
| URI: | http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/124328 |
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