Prasetyo, Fadil Handika (2025) Analisis Spasiotemporal Perubahan Stok Karbon Berdasarkan Pola Perubahan Lahan di Kabupaten Sidoarjo. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.
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Abstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis dinamika perubahan tutupan lahan dan implikasinya terhadap kehilangan stok karbon di Kabupaten Sidoarjo selama periode 2004–2024 dengan pendekatan spasial-temporal. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan citra satelit Landsat 30m dan klasifikasi berbasis supervised classification untuk mengidentifikasi lima kelas utama tutupan lahan: cropland, forest land, built-up, water body, dan barren land. Hasil overlay menunjukkan bahwa dalam dua dekade terakhir, lahan pertanian (cropland) mengalami penurunan signifikan lebih dari 8.800 hektare, dengan konversi utama ke kawasan terbangun (built-up) yang meningkat hingga 20.066 hektare pada 2024. Proses urbanisasi dan ekspansi kawasan industri mendorong alih fungsi lahan secara masif, terutama di koridor strategis dan wilayah suburban. Estimasi perubahan stok karbon dilakukan dengan pendekatan stock difference mengikuti pedoman IPCC, disertai pembagian kelas vegetasi menjadi dry forest dan flooded vegetation untuk akurasi estimasi carbon pool. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan cropland kehilangan stok karbon terbesar, dengan kehilangan stok karbon mencapai 1.042.970 ton C, diikuti oleh kelas flooded vegetation dan dry forest. Analisis faktor pendorong menggunakan Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) dan Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) mengidentifikasi kenaikan variabel dominan seperti jarak ke jaringan air, nilai lahan, jarak ke jalan arteri, jarak ke kawasan industri, serta indeks risiko multi bencana sebagai pemicu utama perubahan tutupan lahan dan peningkatan kehilangan stok karbon (net CO₂-eq) selama dua dekade terakhir. Model GWR menunjukkan variasi spasial yang kuat, dengan nilai koefisien determinasi mencapai 0,997. Dinamika spasial-temporal perubahan stok karbon juga memperlihatkan bahwa kawasan pesisir seperti Sedati, yang semula menjadi penyumbang utama kehilangan stok karbon, bertransformasi menjadi zona penyerapan karbon melalui upaya restorasi ekosistem mangrove pada dekade terakhir. Hasil penelitian ini menegaskan bahwa strategi mitigasi perubahan iklim di Sidoarjo harus mengedepankan pendekatan spasial berbasis karakteristik lokal, perlindungan lahan pertanian, serta optimalisasi ruang terbuka hijau di kawasan urban dan industri sebagai bagian dari kebijakan tata ruang yang berkelanjutan.
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This study analyzes the dynamics of land cover change and its implications for carbon stock loss in Sidoarjo Regency from 2004 to 2024 using a spatial-temporal approach. Landsat satellite imagery (30m) and supervised classification identified five main land cover classes: cropland, forest land, built-up area, water body, and barren land. Overlay analysis shows cropland significantly decreased by more than 8,800 hectares, with most conversion occurring to built-up areas that expanded to 20,066 hectares by 2024. Urbanization and industrial expansion have been the main drivers of these changes, particularly in strategic corridors and suburban zones. Carbon stock changes were estimated using a stock difference approach based on IPCC guidelines, with vegetation classes separated into dry forest and flooded vegetation to ensure more accurate carbon pool calculations. The results indicate that cropland experienced the greatest carbon stock loss, amounting to 1,042,970 tons of carbon, followed by losses in flooded vegetation and dry forest. Driving factor analysis, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), identified key variables such as distance to water networks, land value, distance to arterial roads, proximity to industrial areas, and the multi-hazard risk index as major contributors to land cover change and increased carbon stock loss (net CO₂-eq) over the past two decades. The GWR model demonstrated strong spatial variation, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.997. Furthermore, spatial-temporal analysis revealed that several coastal areas—particularly Sedati, which previously contributed most to carbon loss—have transitioned into carbon sequestration zones through mangrove ecosystem restoration in the past decade. The findings highlight that climate change mitigation strategies in Sidoarjo should prioritize spatially-based policies, protection of agricultural land, and the optimization of green open spaces in urban and industrial areas as part of a sustainable spatial planning framework.
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