Pemodelan Sistem Dinamik Untuk Analisis Keberlanjutan Produksi Hidrogen Dalam Mencapai Roadmap Energi Hidrogen di Indonesia

RAHMAWATI, NURAINI DIAN (2025) Pemodelan Sistem Dinamik Untuk Analisis Keberlanjutan Produksi Hidrogen Dalam Mencapai Roadmap Energi Hidrogen di Indonesia. Masters thesis, ITS.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengembangkan model sistem dinamik sebagai alat bantu pengambilan keputusan dalam mengevaluasi keberlanjutan rantai pasok produksi hidrogen. Studi kasus dilakukan pada salah satu perusahaan migas di Indonesia yang tengah mengembangkan proyek hidrogen. Penelitian ini membuat alat bantu pengambilan keputusan berbasis model simulasi dinamik pada produksi hidrogen. Model simulasi dinamik yang dibangun mengakomodasi berbagai teknologi produksi hidrogen yakni (i) Steam methane reforming (SMR), (ii) SMR dengan carbon capture storage (CCS), dan (iii) electrolysis. Sejumlah skenario dengan berbagai variasi pembangunan pabrik hidrogen dengan berbagai teknologi diatas selama kurun waktu 2025 hingga 2050. Masing-masing skenario tersebut disusun sesuai dengan roadmap pengembangan hidrogen di Indonesia yang telah disusun oleh Indonesia Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy (IFHE) tahun 2023. Skenario-skenario pembangun pabrik hidrogen tersebut kemudian diuji dengan berbagai eksperimen: (i) Mengevaluasi opsi produksi hidrogen yang ekonomis dan ramah lingkungan tiap teknologi, (ii) Mengevaluasi opsi produksi hidrogen yang ekonomis dan ramah lingkungan tiap skenario. Dari hasil eksperimen didapatkan total produksi hidrogen, emisi karbon, CAPEX, OPEX, pendapatan, keuntungan, Levelized Cost of Hydrogen LCOH. Hasil simulasi ini mencari keadaan ekonomi dan non ekonomi dari berbagai teknologi produksi hidrogen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa produksi hidrogen dengan metode elektrolisis menghasilkan emisi karbon yang lebih rendah namun memiliki Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan metode SMR. Penambahan teknologi Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) pada proses SMR terbukti efektif dalam menurunkan emisi karbon hingga 90%, namun berdampak pada peningkatan biaya investasi dan operasional. Selain itu, hasil simulasi skenario menunjukkan bahwa penerapan kebijakan harga jual hidrogen yang optimis dan pengenaan pajak karbon sangat mempengaruhi total biaya dan kelayakan ekonomi produksi.
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This study aims to develop a dynamic systems model as a decision-support tool for evaluating the sustainability of the hydrogen production supply chain. A case study was conducted on an oil and gas company in Indonesia that is currently developing a hydrogen production project. The dynamic simulation model developed in this research accommodates various hydrogen production technologies, including: (i) steam methane reforming (SMR), (ii) SMR with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and (iii) water electrolysis. Several scenarios involving the construction of hydrogen production plants using the aforementioned technologies were simulated over the period from 2025 to 2050. These scenarios were designed based on the Indonesian hydrogen development roadmap formulated by the Indonesia Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy (IFHE) in 2023. The model was used to conduct a series of experiments, including: (i) evaluating the most economical and environmentally friendly hydrogen production technology, and (ii) assessing the economic and environmental performance of each development scenario. The simulation results provide insights into total hydrogen production, carbon emissions, capital expenditures (CAPEX), operational expenditures (OPEX), revenues, profits, and the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). The findings indicate that hydrogen production via electrolysis yields the lowest carbon emissions but results in a higher LCOH compared to SMR. The integration of CCS into the SMR process is proven to effectively reduce carbon emissions by up to 90%, although it leads to higher investment and operational costs. Furthermore, scenario simulation results show that optimistic hydrogen pricing policies and the implementation of carbon taxes significantly influence the total cost and economic feasibility of hydrogen production in the future.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Energi hidrogen, Energi keberlanjutan, Investasi, Produksi hidrogen, Sistem dinamik Dynamic system, Hydrogen energy, Hydrogen production, Investment, Sustainable energy
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General) > H61.4 Forecasting in the social sciences H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions > HC60.M34 Technical assistance. H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions > HC79.E5 Sustainable development. (circular economy)
Divisions:	Faculty of Industrial Technology and Systems Engineering (INDSYS) > Industrial Engineering > 26101-(S2) Master Thesis
Depositing User:	Nuraini Dian Rahmawati
Date Deposited:	05 Aug 2025 09:16
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2025 09:18
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/125487

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