Pemodelan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Di Provinsi Sulawesi Utara Dengan Regresi Data Panel Dinamis Pendekatan Generalized Method Of Moment Blundell-Bond

Firzanah, Fairuz Izzati (2025) Pemodelan Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka Di Provinsi Sulawesi Utara Dengan Regresi Data Panel Dinamis Pendekatan Generalized Method Of Moment Blundell-Bond. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Provinsi Sulawesi Utara memiliki potensi ekonomi yang besar namun masih menghadapi tantangan berupa Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka (TPT) yang relatif tinggi dan fluktuatif, melebihi rata-rata nasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memodelkan TPT menggunakan metode regresi data panel dinamis dengan pendekatan Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Blundell-Bond. Metode ini dipilih karena lebih efisien dibandingkan Arellano-Bond dalam mengatasi kelemahan instrumen, serta menghindari estimasi bias pada model dinamis yang diestimasi dengan OLS. Variabel prediktor dalam penelitian ini adalah Tingkat Partisipasi Angkatan Kerja (TPAK), Laju Pertumbuhan Penduduk (LPP), Jumlah Penduduk Miskin (JPM), Belanja Pemerintah (BP), dan Angka Partisipasi Kasar (APK). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian merupakan data sekunder dari Badan Pusat Statistik Sulawesi Utara dalam kurun waktu tahun 2017 hingga 2023. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap TPT dengan metode GMM Blundell-Bond di Sulawesi Utara adalah lag TPT, TPAK, dan LPP dengan tanda koefisien yang sesuai dengan teori ekonomi dan nilai kebaikan model yang didapat sebesar 82,43%. TPAK dan LPP masing-masing memiliki efek jangka pendek terhadap TPT sebesar -1,62 dan 0,09. Sedangkan TPAK dan LPP memberikan efek jangka panjang sebesar -4,5 dan 0,25.
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North Sulawesi is a province with significant economic potential due to its strategic geographical location. However, it still faces challenges in the form of a relatively high and fluctuating Open Unemployment Rate (TPT), which remains above the national average. The purpose of this study is to model the Open Unemployment Rate using dynamic panel data regression with Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Blundell-Bond. This method is chosen for its greater efficiency compared to the Arellano-Bond approach in addressing weak instrument problems, as well as its ability to avoid biased estimates in dynamic models estimated using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The predictor variables in this study are Labor Force Participation Rate (TPAK), Population Growth Rate (LPP), Number of Poor People (JPM), Government Expenditure (BP), and Gross Enrollment Ratio (APK). The data used are secondary data from the North Sulawesi Central Bureau of Statistics with a period of 2017 to 2023. The results of the analysis show that the variables significantly affecting the TPT using the Blundell-Bond method in North Sulawesi are lagged TPT, TPAK, and LPP, with coefficient signs consistent with economic theory and a goodness-of-fit value of 82.43%. TPAK and LPP have short-term effects on TPT of -1.62 and 0.09. Meanwhile, TPAK and LPP provide long-term effects of -4.5 and 0.25.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	GMM Arellano-Bond, GMM Blundell-Bond, Regresi Data Panel Dinamis, Sulawesi Utara, Tingkat Pengangguran Terbuka, Dynamic Panel Data Regression, GMM Arellano-Bond, GMM Blundell-Bond, North Sulawesi, Unemployment Rate
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA30.3 Time-series analysis
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Fairuz Izzati Firzanah
Date Deposited:	01 Aug 2025 01:43
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2025 01:43
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/125578

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