PERAMALAN PENJUALAN SEPEDA MOTOR DI MAGETAN DAN MADIUN

ARIFIN, NUR (2014) PERAMALAN PENJUALAN SEPEDA MOTOR DI MAGETAN DAN MADIUN. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

Preview	Text 1310100032-Abstract.pdf - Published Version Download (349kB) | Preview
	Text 1310100032-Undergraduate Thesis.pdf - Published Version Restricted to Repository staff only Download (3MB) | Request a copy
Preview	Text 1310100032-conclusion.pdf - Published Version Download (414kB) | Preview

Abstract

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mendeskripsikan
penjualan sepeda motor di Magetan dan Madiun. Selain itu akan
dicari model regresi linier linier penjualan serta ramalannya,
titik jenuh pembelian sepeda motor, dan perbandingan antara
model ARIMAX dan regresi time series dalam meramalkan
penjualan bulanan total sepeda motor per jenis. Data yang
digunakan adalah data penjualan sepeda motor dari PT. “XYZ”
dan data faktor yang diduga mempengaruhi penjualan sepeda
motor yang berasal dari BPS Jawa Timur. Tahun 2013, sepeda
motor merek “X” menguasai pasar di Magetan dan Madiun
hingga mencapai 68,21% dan 60,05%. Salah satu faktor yang
mempengaruhi penjualan motor adalah PDRB per kapita. Hasil
ramalan penjualan total sepeda motor per jenis pada tahun 2014
menunjukkan bahwa penjualan matic, cub, dan sport cenderung
tinggi pada bulan-bulan yang berkaitan dengan hari raya Idul
Fitri yaitu bulan Juli dan Agustus. Penjualan jenis matic dan
sport memiliki pola yang cenderung meningkat, tetapi pada sport
peningkatannya tidak setajam pada matic, sebaliknya penjualan
jenis cub memiliki pola yang cenderung menurun. Selain itu titik
jenuh pembelian sepeda motor di Magetan dan Madiun diprediksi
terjadi pada tahun 2026 dan 2027.

=====================================================================================================

The aim of the research is to describe motorcycle sales in
Magetan and Madiun. Additionally, it will look for a linear
regression model of sales as well as predictions, the saturation
point of motorcycle purchase, and comparisons between ARIMAX
and time series regression models in forecasting of monthly total
sales for each type of motorcycle. The data that used are
motorcycle sales from PT. “XYZ” and suspected factors that
affect motorcycle sales from BPS East Java. In 2013, the
motorcycle brand “X” dominates the market in Magetan and
Madiun up to 68,21% and 60,05%. One of factors that affects the
motorcycle sales is GDP per capita. The forecast results of
motorcycle sales for each type in 2014 show that matic, cub, and
sport sales tend to be high in the months associate with Eid which
are in July and August. The sales of matic and sport types have a
pattern that tend to increase, but the increase in sport type is not
significant than matic type, in contrast the sales of cub has a
pattern that tends to decrease. In addition to, the saturation point
of motorcycle purchase in Magetan and Madiun are predicted
occurred in 2026 and 2027.

Item Type:	Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information:	RSSt 519.535 Ari p
Uncontrolled Keywords:	ARIMAX, Regresi Time Series, Sepeda Motor, Titik Jenuh, Variasi Kalender
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis. Logistic regression
Divisions:	Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Mr. Tondo Indra Nyata
Date Deposited:	03 Jan 2017 03:25
Last Modified:	03 Jan 2017 08:00
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/1257

Actions (login required)

View Item