PERAMALAN PENJUALAN SEPEDA MOTOR DI MAGETAN DAN MADIUN

ARIFIN, NUR (2014) PERAMALAN PENJUALAN SEPEDA MOTOR DI MAGETAN DAN MADIUN. Undergraduate thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mendeskripsikan penjualan sepeda motor di Magetan dan Madiun. Selain itu akan dicari model regresi linier linier penjualan serta ramalannya, titik jenuh pembelian sepeda motor, dan perbandingan antara model ARIMAX dan regresi time series dalam meramalkan penjualan bulanan total sepeda motor per jenis. Data yang digunakan adalah data penjualan sepeda motor dari PT. “XYZ” dan data faktor yang diduga mempengaruhi penjualan sepeda motor yang berasal dari BPS Jawa Timur. Tahun 2013, sepeda motor merek “X” menguasai pasar di Magetan dan Madiun hingga mencapai 68,21% dan 60,05%. Salah satu faktor yang mempengaruhi penjualan motor adalah PDRB per kapita. Hasil ramalan penjualan total sepeda motor per jenis pada tahun 2014 menunjukkan bahwa penjualan matic, cub, dan sport cenderung tinggi pada bulan-bulan yang berkaitan dengan hari raya Idul Fitri yaitu bulan Juli dan Agustus. Penjualan jenis matic dan sport memiliki pola yang cenderung meningkat, tetapi pada sport peningkatannya tidak setajam pada matic, sebaliknya penjualan jenis cub memiliki pola yang cenderung menurun. Selain itu titik jenuh pembelian sepeda motor di Magetan dan Madiun diprediksi terjadi pada tahun 2026 dan 2027. ===================================================================================================== The aim of the research is to describe motorcycle sales in Magetan and Madiun. Additionally, it will look for a linear regression model of sales as well as predictions, the saturation point of motorcycle purchase, and comparisons between ARIMAX and time series regression models in forecasting of monthly total sales for each type of motorcycle. The data that used are motorcycle sales from PT. “XYZ” and suspected factors that affect motorcycle sales from BPS East Java. In 2013, the motorcycle brand “X” dominates the market in Magetan and Madiun up to 68,21% and 60,05%. One of factors that affects the motorcycle sales is GDP per capita. The forecast results of motorcycle sales for each type in 2014 show that matic, cub, and sport sales tend to be high in the months associate with Eid which are in July and August. The sales of matic and sport types have a pattern that tend to increase, but the increase in sport type is not significant than matic type, in contrast the sales of cub has a pattern that tends to decrease. In addition to, the saturation point of motorcycle purchase in Magetan and Madiun are predicted occurred in 2026 and 2027.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Additional Information: RSSt 519.535 Ari p
Uncontrolled Keywords: ARIMAX, Regresi Time Series, Sepeda Motor, Titik Jenuh, Variasi Kalender
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA278.2 Regression Analysis
Divisions: Faculty of Mathematics and Science > Statistics > (S1) Undergraduate Theses
Depositing User: Mr. Tondo Indra Nyata
Date Deposited: 03 Jan 2017 03:25
Last Modified: 03 Jan 2017 08:00
URI: http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/1257

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