Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Contraceptive Prevalence Rate di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat dan Timur Menggunakan Model Regresi Spline Truncated

Khodijah, Khodijah (2025) Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Contraceptive Prevalence Rate di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat dan Timur Menggunakan Model Regresi Spline Truncated. Other thesis, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember.

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Abstract

Indonesia mengalami pertumbuhan penduduk yang signifikan, mencapai 273,8 juta jiwa. Pada tahun 2023, dengan laju pertumbuhan sebesar 1,25% per tahun. Kondisi ini menimbulkan berbagai tantangan di bidang ekonomi, sosial, dan kesehatan reproduksi. Salah satu upaya pengendalian pertumbuhan penduduk adalah melalui peningkatan Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR), yaitu persentase wanita usia subur (15–49 tahun) yang menggunakan kontrasepsi atau alat KB. Namun, tingkat CPR di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) dan Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT) masih tergolong rendah dan belum merata, masing-masing sebesar 58,2% dan 36,6%, di mana masih di bawah rata-rata nasional (59,4%). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi CPR pada 32 kabupaten/kota di kedua provinsi tersebut. Variabel respon yang digunakan adalah persentase wanita usia subur yang menggunakan kontrasepsi, sementara variabel prediktor terdiri dari persentase penduduk miskin, rata-rata lama sekolah wanita, dan rasio tenaga kesehatan per 1.000 penduduk. Pola hubungan antara variabel prediktor dan respon tidak mengikuti pola parametrik tertentu, sehingga pendekatan regresi nonparametrik spline truncated digunakan untuk membangun model terbaik. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model dengan kombinasi titik knot (3,3,1) memiliki nilai Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) terkecil dan menghasilkan koefisien determinasi (R²) sebesar 74,6%. Berdasarkan signifikansi parameter, variabel persentase penduduk miskin, rata-rata lama sekolah wanita, dan rasio tenaga kesehatan berpengaruh terhadap persentase wanita usia subur yang menggunakan kontrasepsi di wilayah tersebut. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa keberhasilan program keluarga berencana sangat dipengaruhi oleh faktor sosial dan struktural yang melekat pada karakteristik wilayah masing-masing.
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Indonesia has experienced significant population growth, reaching 273.8 million people in 2023, with a growth rate of 1.25% per year. This situation poses various challenges in theeconomic, social, and reproductive health sectors. One of the efforts to control population growth is through increasing the Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR), which is the percentage of women of reproductive age (15–49 years) who use contraception or family planning methods. However, the CPR in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) provinces remains low and uneven, at 58.2% and 36.6%, respectively, which is below the national average (59.4%). This study aims to analyze the factors influencing CPR in 32 districts/cities in both provinces. The response variable used is the percentage of women of reproductive age using contraception, while the predictor variables include the percentage of the poor population, the average years of schooling for women, and the ratio of health workers per 1,000 population. The relationship pattern between the predictor and response variables does not follow a specific parametric pattern, so a nonparametric spline truncated regression approach was used to build the best model. The analysis results show that the model with the knot point combination (3,3,1) has the smallest Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value and produces a coefficient of determination (R²) of 74.6%. Based on parameter significance, the variables of percentage of poor population, average length of schooling for women, and healthcare worker ratio influence the percentage of women of reproductive age using contraception in the region. These findings confirm that the success of family planning programs is greatly influenced by social and structural factors inherent to the characteristics of each region.

Item Type:	Thesis (Other)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Contraceptive Prevalence Rate, Generalized Cross Validation, Nusa Tenggara Barat dan Timur, Regresi Nonparametrik Spline truncated, Titik Knot, Contraceptive Prevalence Rate, Generalized Cross Validation, Knot Point, Regresi Nonparametrik Spline truncated, West and East Nusa Tenggara
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HA Statistics > HA31.7 Estimation
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Data Analytics (SCIENTICS) > Statistics > 49201-(S1) Undergraduate Thesis
Depositing User:	Khodijah Khodijah
Date Deposited:	01 Aug 2025 07:38
Last Modified:	01 Aug 2025 07:38
URI:	http://repository.its.ac.id/id/eprint/125797

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